172
FXUS66 KLOX 150427
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
927 PM PDT WED MAY 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
14/825 PM.
A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIGHTER
ONSHORE WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. A COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME MORNING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)
14/826 PM.
***UPDATE***
EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FAIRLY MINIMAL STRATUS CLOUD COVER NEAR
THE COAST. THE MAIN AREAS WHERE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD OCCUR ARE THE
SOUTHERN CENTRAL COAST/ WESTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY, AND THE LA
BASIN. THE OXNARD PLAIN IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION, WITH A CHANCE OF
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE BEACHES, EXTENDING A SHORT DISTANCE INLAND.
OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS IN SOME AREAS. THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTHWEST COAST
IS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 42 MPH
AT GAVIOTA AND REFUGIO. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN SANTA MARIA AND SANTA
BARBARA ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. ONSHORE
GRADIENTS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY LIMIT COOLING SOME, AND MAY AID IN
PUSHING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS FURTHER INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND PEAK SATURDAY AS COLDER
TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENSEMBLES ARE STILL
STRONGLY SUGGESTING A DAMP MORNING ON SATURDAY WITH A DEEP MARINE
LAYER CREATING SOME DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH FACING
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. AND WITH STRONG ONSHORE TRENDS IT WILL
EITHER BE A CLOUDY AFTERNOON OR THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
REVERSE CLEARING DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
EITHER WAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
14/223 PM.
LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN MONDAY AS WELL AS SOME OF THE
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS BRING ANOTHER UPPER LOW THROUGH INTERIOR
CALIFORNIA MONDAY MORNING. THEN THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK. BY MID WEEK VALLEY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BACK INTO THE 90S, POSSIBLY EVEN PUSHING 100 BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AND WITH MODELS INDICATING A SHARP DROP IN ONSHORE FLOW
EVEN COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
15/0048Z.
AT 2309Z, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 900 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS NEAR 2000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KSBA, KCMA, KPMD, AND KWJF.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS AT KOXR (20%) BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. ARRIVAL TIME OF CIGS MAY BE
OFF BY +/- 3 HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR KSMX (30%) AND KSBP
(10-20%) TO SEE LIFR CONDS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
IFR CONDS AT KBUR/KVNY BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MINIMUM FLIGHT CAT IF CIGS ARRIVE. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF IFR
CONDS AT KLAX/KSMO OVERNIGHT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. ARRIVAL OF CIGS MAY BE
AS EARLY AS 08Z OR AS LATE AS 13Z. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDS ONCE CIGS ARRIVE. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF AN EAST WIND
COMPONENT REACHING 8 KTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
FOR CIGS BETWEEN 005-012 BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
IN MINIMUM FLIGHT CAT IF CIGS ARRIVE.
MARINE
14/924 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, A COMBINATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH BRIEF
LULLS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR
THE WEEKEND, GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE (30-40 PERCENT CHANCE)
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH
HEIGHTS PEAKING AT 16 FEET. THEN, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE,
BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE INNER WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, CURRENT SCA LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR WINDS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 10 FEET TONIGHT, AND MAY
NEED TO EXTEND SCA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IF LARGE SEAS LINGER.
SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY (60-80% CHANCE) DURING THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE NIGHT HOURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEN, A COMBINATION
OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY,
WITH SEAS APPROACHING 14 FEET SUNDAY. THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR GALES DURING THIS TIME. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, SCA LEVEL
WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS (50-60 PERCENT
CHANCE). SEAS ARE LESS LIKELY TO HIT SCA THRESHOLDS (20-30
PERCENT CHANCE).
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, CURRENT SCA LOOKS
ON TRACK ENDING TONIGHT. THERE IS A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SCA
WINDS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CHANNEL IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEN, SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FEET
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO LATE SUNDAY. THERE
IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR GALES DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT THERE IS A 20-40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SCA WINDS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SB CHANNEL
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/CILIBERTI
AVIATION...LEWIS/SMITH
MARINE...PHILLIPS/LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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