736
FXUS66 KLOX 151011
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
311 AM PDT THU MAY 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
15/157 AM.
SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHTER ONSHORE WINDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME MORNING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
15/232 AM.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS COVERS THE CENTRAL COAST, BUT HAS BEEN SLOW
TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. THE MARINE LAYER ABOUT 1400 FT
DEEP AND IS CAPPED BY A DECENT INVERSION SO LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP BETWEEN NOW AND DAWN. THERE ARE OFFSHORE TRENDS IN THE E/W
DIRECTION AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MORNING CLOUDS CLOSE TO
THE COAST WITHOUT MUCH INLAND PENETRATION. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR BY MID OR LATE MORNING AND SKIES WILL BE SUNNY EVERYWHERE
FOR THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH NEAR THE COASTS
BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL WARM. 2 TO 4 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA BUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES FOR THE FAR INTERIOR INCLUDING THE
ANTELOPE VLY. THE WARMING WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BRING MAX TEMPS UP
TO NORMAL AND THEY WILL END UP 2 TO 4 DEGREES BLO NORMS.
WEAK POS TILT TROFFING WILL COVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE EACH DAY BOTH TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE
LOWERING HGTS, CYCLONIC FLOW AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALL
JOIN UP TO PRODUCE A DEEPER AND MORE EXTENSIVE MARINE LAYER CLOUD
PATTERN.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FRIDAY BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD MAKING A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR AREA SOUTH OF
PT CONCEPTION.
A LOBE OF PVA PASSES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS WILL REALLY
DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE.
THERE IS EVEN ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT RAIN TO
THE SAN GABRIEL VLY AND THE EASTERN SAN GABRIEL MTNS. MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE LIFT FORM THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS OVERHEAD ALL DAY.
LOOK FOR TWO DAYS OF COOLING WITH 2 TO 4 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND
THEN A DRAMATIC 4 TO 8 ADDITIONAL DEGREES ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS
ON FRIDAY WILL NOT ESCAPE THE 60S WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BLO
NORMAL FOR THE VLYS.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
15/306 AM.
STILL NOT THE BEST CONFIDENCE IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST. THE MAJORITY
OF ENSEMBLES FAVOR LESS MARINE LAYER AND WARMING ACROSS THE CSTS
AND VLYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A SWITCH TO OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE
NORTH (AS EVIDENCED BY COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR) STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE CSTS AND THE ANTELOPE VLY AND IT MIGHT
THWART THE FORECAST WARMING WITH A STRONG SEABREEZE.
BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR THE MONDAY TO THURSDAY FORECAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND HGTS RISE. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE NORTH AND THE ONSHORE PUSH TO THE EAST WILL WEAKEN (AND MAY
EVEN TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNINGS). THE
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL EITHER BE GREATLY REDUCED OR ELIMINATED
COMPLETELY. 3 TO 6 LOCALLY 8 DEGREES OF WARMING IS FORECAST EACH
DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY THE CSTS WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND EVEN LOWER 80S WITH JUST A FEW BEACHES REMAINING IN
THE 60S. THE VLYS WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH THE WARMEST LOCATIONS
HITTING EITHER 90 OR 91 DEGREES. THESE MAX TEMPS ARE MOSTLY ALL 4
TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
15/0949Z.
AT 0930Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE INVERSION WAS AROUND 1200 FEET DEEP.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF
15 DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAFS FOR KPRB, KSBA, KCMA, KPMD, AND KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF DISSIPATION OF
CIGS THIS MORNING COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. FOR
TONIGHT, TIMING OF RETURN OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS COULD BE +/- 3
HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
KLAX...OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE OF IFR CIGS 12Z-15Z. DISSIPATION OF CIGS COULD BE AS LATE
AS 19Z. FOR TONIGHT, TIMING OF RETURN OF MVFR CIGS COULD BE +/-
3 HOURS OF CURRENT 06Z FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE OF IFR CIGS 12Z-16Z. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
IFR CIGS AFTER 11Z.
MARINE
15/249 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
COMBINATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COMBINATION OF SCA
LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING WITH A 40-60% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE
WINDS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, THERE
IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WITH A 30-50% CHANCE OF
GALE FORCE WINDS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. FOR
MONDAY, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS
CONTINUING.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS EVENING. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS WITH A
40-50% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. FOR
MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
LEVELS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ZONES 349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
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