915
FXUS66 KLOX 171850
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1150 AM PDT SAT MAY 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
17/844 AM.
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MORNING DRIZZLE. GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
17/903 AM.
***UPDATE***
AS EXPECTED THE MARINE LAYER HAS SHOT UP TO AROUND 5000 FEET THIS
MORNING BASED ON PILOT REPORTS AROUND THE LA BASIN. NUMEROUS RAIN
GAGES, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTH FACING FOOTHILLS, HAVE MEASURED
LIGHT PRECIP UP TO AROUND 0.05" SO FAR. IT'S GOING TO BE A SLOW
CLEARING DAY AT BEST TODAY AND THIS MAY BE A REVERSE CLEARING DAY
WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR FIRST OVER THE OCEAN AND NEAR THE COAST AND
SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY INLAND. EITHER WAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S AT BEST, WHICH IS 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AT THE COAST AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INLAND.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ROUND OF SUNDOWNER WINDS DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A TIGHT NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY KEEPING WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY, THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR,
AND DOWN INTO THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A
HIGH WIND WATCH COULD BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
FOR EASTERN SANTA YNEZ RANGE AT 850 MB WINDS ARE MARGINALLY STRONG
ENOUGH.
THE FLOW PATTERN WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY BETWEEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND AN ATYPICAL BUT NOT UNUSUAL WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
PATTERN FOR MAY COULD DEVELOP FOR MONDAY. WINDS LOOK TO WANES AND
ONLY BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS LOOK ON TAP. THE FORECAST
HAS WARMING TEMPERATURES, BREAKING AWAY FROM NBM VALUES FOR THE
PERIOD. NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARMING LOOKED AGREEABLE.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
17/439 AM.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, AND
POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILD OVER THE
REGION AND WEAK FLOW SETTLES INTO REGION. EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ADVERTISE A WARMING TREND IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS, BUT THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR THURSDAY.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE ENSEMBLES WOULD AGREE THAT THE AIR MASS
SHOULD WARM INTO THURSDAY AS A MAJORITY OF THE CLUSTERS LEAN
TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS BEING OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. THE FORECAST
BREAKS AWAY FROM NBM VALUES AND MAINTAINS A WARMER STANCE, BUT
THE WRINKLE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED FOR THURSDAY AS IT
COULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE STRETCH. SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST,
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE STRETCH OF HOT TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
17/1849Z.
AT 1807Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 4800 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 6300 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 10 DEGREES CELSIUS.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS DUE TO A DEEP MARINE LAYER
WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY OR
SO. SITES WITH NO VFR TRANSITIONS MAY SEE VFR CONDS THROUGH 06Z,
WHILE SITES WITH VFR TRANSITIONS MAY REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND ALL SITES (EXCEPT DESERT SITES) MAY
BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING OF FLIGHT
CAT CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS, AND CIGS MAY ARRIVE AS
EARLY AS 09Z SUN FOR KCMA, KOXR, KPRB.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF NO VFR
TRANSITION, AND IF IT DOES OCCUR, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF VFR
CONDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 7 KNOTS 12Z-16Z SUN.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE OF NO VFR TRANSITION, AND IF IT DOES OCCUR, THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF VFR CONDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
17/912 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL
SUNDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS, SHORT PERIOD,
STEEP SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA LEVELS WHILE
SEAS DROP BELOW 10 FEET.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR TODAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA
WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING TO GALE FORCE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE
WINDS DEVELOPING. THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, SEAS WILL HOVER NEAR 10
FEET. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THERE WILL BE A 30-40% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCA LEVEL WINDS WITH A 60-70%
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE IS A 60-80%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL (WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING), AS WELL AS A 20-30% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
340-341-343-346>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
349>352. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONE 378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
381-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE 655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/HALL
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...RAT/LUND
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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