377
FXUS66 KLOX 172112
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
212 PM PDT SAT MAY 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
17/1156 AM.
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MORNING DRIZZLE. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. VERY HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
17/1236 PM.
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO FALL OUT OF A 5000
FOOT MARINE LAYER THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY
OF THE SOUTH FACING COASTAL SLOPES. OTHERWISE, A DEEP STRATUS
LAYER ALONG WITH A WHOPPING 9MB GRADIENT TO THE EAST ARE KEEPING
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST LOW CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OUT A LITTLE FASTER WITH A STIFF
NORTHWEST BREEZE, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE CHILLY WITH HIGHS TODAY
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS AND 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WILL
SPREAD SOUTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY EVEN INTO THE CITY OF SANTA BARBARA. AND STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA.
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE 5-10 DEGREES OF WARMING SUNDAY AND EITHER
MINIMAL OR NO MARINE LAYER STRATUS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE GRAPEVINE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
GRADIENTS WEAKEN AND SHIFT LIGHTLY OFFSHORE.
THE SHIFT TO LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A WARM AIR MASS WILL
BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MONDAY MOST
AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S. COULD STILL HAVE A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
COASTAL LA COUNTY WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER TUESDAY WITH WARMER VALLEYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. IT'S
POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, BUT
CHANCES RISE TO 80-90% THAT THEY WILL BE NEEDED AFTER TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
17/1243 PM.
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY BUT THURSDAY WILL BE A
CLOSE SECOND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 100S IN THE WARMER VALLEYS
AND 80S AND 90S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WHILE THE
MAGNITUDE OF THIS HEAT WAVE WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST ONE A
COUPLE WEEKS AGO, THE DURATION WILL BE AT LEAST TWO DAYS LONGER
LEADING TO HIGHER HEAT STRESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ABOVE 1000 FEET ELEVATION. DAILY
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE AT RISK FOR BEING BROKEN. ANYONE
PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES NEXT WEEK SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER
POSTPONING TO A COOLER DAY.
A COOLING TREND WILL SLOWLY BEGIN THURSDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
17/1849Z.
AT 1807Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 4800 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 6300 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 10 DEGREES CELSIUS.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS DUE TO A DEEP MARINE LAYER
WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY OR
SO. SITES WITH NO VFR TRANSITIONS MAY SEE VFR CONDS THROUGH 06Z,
WHILE SITES WITH VFR TRANSITIONS MAY REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND ALL SITES (EXCEPT DESERT SITES) MAY
BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING OF FLIGHT
CAT CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS, AND CIGS MAY ARRIVE AS
EARLY AS 09Z SUN FOR KCMA, KOXR, KPRB.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF NO VFR
TRANSITION, AND IF IT DOES OCCUR, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF VFR
CONDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 7 KNOTS 12Z-16Z SUN.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE OF NO VFR TRANSITION, AND IF IT DOES OCCUR, THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF VFR CONDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
17/200 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
LULL SUNDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS, SHORT
PERIOD, STEEP SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS
MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SUGGESTING STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. AS THERE HAS ONLY
BEEN ONE RUN SUGGESTING SUCH STRONG WINDS, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES MONDAY. OTHERWISE, FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
LEVELS WHILE SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR TODAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA
WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING TO GALE FORCE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE
WINDS DEVELOPING. THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, SEAS WILL HOVER NEAR 10
FEET. ON MONDAY, THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND A 10-20% CHANCE OF REACHING
GALE FORCE LEVELS. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A
30-40% CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING SCA LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCA LEVEL WINDS WITH A 60-70%
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE IS A 60-80%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL (WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING), AS WELL AS A 20-30% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. FOR
MONDAY, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. THEN TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING
BELOW SCA LEVELS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 340-341-343-346>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 349>352. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10
AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE 378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 381-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE 655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...RAT/LUND
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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