534
FXUS66 KLOX 180302
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
802 PM PDT SAT MAY 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
17/718 PM.
A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, BUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SUNDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY, WHILE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND IN THE LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS NEAR THE GRAPEVINE. VERY HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)
17/734 PM.
***UPDATE***
A DEEP MARINE LAYER OVER THE AREA WILL SHRINK SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWER
CEILINGS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO THE LA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS, WITH BROKEN OR NO COVERAGE FOR THE
VENTURA COAST AND THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND INTERIOR SAN
LUIS OBISPO COUNTY ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE AND THE WIND ADVISORY
THERE WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 900 PM. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
IN SW SANTA BARBARA COUNTY WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT, WHILE
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE I-5 CORRIDOR ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND DECREASING ONSHORE GRADIENTS, ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE COAST. LOOK FOR 60S ALONG THE COAST, WITH 70S TO LOW 80S
INLAND.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO FALL OUT OF A 5000
FOOT MARINE LAYER THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY
OF THE SOUTH FACING COASTAL SLOPES. OTHERWISE, A DEEP STRATUS
LAYER ALONG WITH A WHOPPING 9MB GRADIENT TO THE EAST ARE KEEPING
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
LOW CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OUT A LITTLE FASTER WITH A STIFF NW
BREEZE, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE CHILLY WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SPREAD SOUTH
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY EVEN INTO THE CITY OF SANTA BARBARA. AND STRONG SW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA.
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE 5-10 DEGREES OF WARMING SUNDAY AND EITHER
MINIMAL OR NO MARINE LAYER STRATUS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE GRAPEVINE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
GRADIENTS WEAKEN AND SHIFT LIGHTLY OFFSHORE.
THE SHIFT TO LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A WARM AIR MASS WILL
BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MONDAY MOST
AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S. COULD STILL HAVE A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
COASTAL LA COUNTY WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER TUESDAY WITH WARMER VALLEYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. IT'S
POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, BUT
CHANCES RISE TO 80-90% THAT THEY WILL BE NEEDED AFTER TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
17/1243 PM.
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY BUT THURSDAY WILL BE A
CLOSE SECOND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 100S IN THE WARMER VALLEYS
AND 80S AND 90S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WHILE THE
MAGNITUDE OF THIS HEAT WAVE WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST ONE A
COUPLE WEEKS AGO, THE DURATION WILL BE AT LEAST TWO DAYS LONGER
LEADING TO HIGHER HEAT STRESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ABOVE 1000 FEET ELEVATION. DAILY
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE AT RISK FOR BEING BROKEN. ANYONE
PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES NEXT WEEK SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER
POSTPONING TO A COOLER DAY.
A COOLING TREND WILL SLOWLY BEGIN THURSDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
18/0005Z.
AT 2148Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 5600 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 6600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 9 C.
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. TIMING OF
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. FLIGHT CATS MAY BE
OFF ONE OR TWO. FOR DESERT SITES (KPMD, KWJF), BETTER CHANCES OF
BLDU AND MVFR VSBYS TOMORROW AS GUSTY WINDS SHIFT MORE TOWARDS
THE NW.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. MVFR TO VFR CIGS (<035)
THROUGH AROUND 19Z SUN. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF EAST WIND
COMPONENT REACHING 7-8KTS FROM 09Z TO 16Z SUN.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. PERIODS OF VFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z SUN.
MARINE
17/736 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW TO PICK UP BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD GALES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS DUE TO MORE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. SHORT PERIOD, STEEP
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK 12-14 FEET SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A BIT OF A DIVERGENCE IN GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR
NOT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALES MONDAY
EVENING. THEREAFTER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH SEAS
HOVERING AROUND SCA THRESHOLDS (10 FEET).
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER INCREASE LIKELY TO GALES (STRONGER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT) SUN AFTERNOON/EVE.
SEAS WILL PEAK 10-12 FEET IN WESTERN PORTIONS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THERE IS A 70% CHANCE OF SCA WINDS ON TUE AND A 50-60%
CHANCE ON WED, DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, WITH A 30% CHANCE FOR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SBA CHANNEL. SIMILAR CHANCES FOR WESTERN PORTIONS ON
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 340-341-343-346>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 349>352. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONE 378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 381-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE
655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/CILIBERTI
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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