640
FXUS66 KLOX 182351
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
451 PM PDT SUN MAY 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
18/113 PM.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY
HOT WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEK, PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY, WHILE GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND IN THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE GRAPEVINE.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
18/247 PM.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEK. MAKE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF HYDRATING FLUIDS AND
LIMIT TIME SPENT OUTDOORS, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. KNOW
THE SIGNS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND CHECK IN ON THOSE ESPECIALLY
VULNERABLE TO THE HEAT, SUCH AS (BUT NOT LIMITED TO) THE ELDERLY,
CHILDREN, AND PETS.
AS FOR TODAY, STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DECIDED TO MAKE THEIR
APPEARANCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY OVER LOS
ANGELES COUNTY. THANKS TO INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND WEAKENING
ONSHORE FLOW, THESE CLOUDS HAVE NOT STOPPED TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING
INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE COASTS IN THE 60S INTO
LOW 70S, AS FORECASTED. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE NW FLOW AND MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST HAVE BROUGHT
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS TO THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND ITS WESTERN
FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE I-5 CORRIDOR, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
INTO MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH AND
EAST OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THIS EVENING
AND INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE VENTURA MOUNTAINS, INTERIOR SANTA
BARBARA MOUNTAINS, THE SANTA YNEZ COASTAL RANGE (EASTERN AND
WESTERN PORTION), AND THE SOUTHWESTERN SANTA BARBARA COAST.
THANKS TO OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY, MARINE LAYER
STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE LA COUNTY BEACHES, WITH A
30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT EVEN THESE AREAS WILL BE CLOUD FREE.
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE AND 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO
582 DAM. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP 3 TO 6 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTS AND
6 TO 12 LOCALLY 15 DEGREES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. MOST MAX
TEMPS WILL END UP 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WHILE THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE WINDS DURING THE DAY,
GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL MAKE A RETURN ACROSS THE ENTIRE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN SBA COAST MONDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. THESE WINDS
PAIRED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY,
ESPECIALLY IN FINE FUELS SUCH GRASSES.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ON TUESDAY BUT HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE A
COUPLE OF DAM UP TO 584 DAM. THE OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AND SKIES
WILL BE CLOUD FREE. MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WILL ONLY WARM 1
OR 2 DEGREES. VTA AND LA COUNTIES, HOWEVER, WILL SEE ANOTHER 4 TO
8 DEGREES OF WARMING AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
AFFECT IN THIS LOCATION. MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS WILL BE IN
THE 70S EXCEPT THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LA/VTA COASTS WHERE
LOWER TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON. THE VALLYES WILL ALL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE 90S. THESE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERA, BUT REMAIN JUST UNDER. STILL, PEOPLE WORKING OR PLAYING
OUTSIDE IN THE VALLEYS SHOULD BE AWARE OF HEAT DANGERS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
18/252 PM.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY. THE
VALLEYS WILL SEE MAX TEMPS FROM 95 TO 103 DEGREES (15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) WHILE OTHER AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S TO 90S, AND THE COASTS IN THE 70S TO 80S. IN
ADDITION, THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG INVERSION AROUND 1000 FT
(RIGHT AT MANY VALLEY ELEVATIONS) AND THIS WILL ALSO KEEP MANY
OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MEANS THAT LITTLE RELIEF
WILL COME DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, MAKING THIS STRETCH OF HEAT
MORE OF A CONCERN THAN THE PREVIOUS HEAT WAVE.
SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING SOME COOLING THURSDAY, BUT NOT REALLY ENOUGH TO REDUCE THE
HEAT DANGER. HEAT ADVISORIES LOOK VERY LIKELY FOR BOTH DAYS AND
PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE NOTICE AND PERHAPS ADJUST ANY OUTDOOR PLANS.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND THIS WILL
MAKE THE BEACH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY AS THERE COULD BE A
HUGE TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BEACHES AND THE INLAND AREAS.
THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES BOTH ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
SOME OF THE COASTS. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL 3 TO 6 DEGREES FRIDAY AND
THEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY, MOST MAX TEMPS
WILL ONLY BE 3 OR SO DEGREES OVER NORMAL.
AVIATION
18/2350Z.
AT 2345Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS NEAR 2900 FEET DEEP AT KLAX.
THE TOP OF THE WEAK MARINE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4800 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE NEAR 11 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KLAX, KSMO, AND KLGB. 60% CHANCE
OF MVFR CIGS FOR KLGB AND KLAX LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
WITH A 40% CHANCE OF REACHING KSMO.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. AT KPMD AND KWJF, LIGHT LLWS
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH
10Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD, WITH EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR
CIGS LIKELY BETWEEN 12Z-16Z MONDAY.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
18/228 PM.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST, THERE IS A 80-100 PERCENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR LULLS NEARSHORE ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A
50-80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY, WITH A BRIEF DECREASE TO SCA LEVELS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ZONE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OUTER WATERS, WHILE THE LOWEST
CHANCES WILL BE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AND THE FOR SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR GALE
FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND MAX WIND SPEEDS BEYOND TUESDAY.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, THERE IS A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOCUSED ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. LOCAL GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE VERY EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CHANNEL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS IN THE
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS EXCEPT FOR LOCAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS IN
TYPICAL WINDY SPOTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, INCLUDING THE SAN
PEDRO CHANNEL. THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE FOR SCA LEVEL WINDS IN
SIMILAR AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, BUT
STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE TUESDAY IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SBA CHANNEL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONES 352-353. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
376-377. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONE 378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 381-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE
650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE/LUND
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...KL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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