100
FXUS66 KLOX 190312
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
812 PM PDT SUN MAY 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
18/739 PM.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY
HOT WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEK, PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY, WHILE GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND IN THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE GRAPEVINE.
SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)
18/810 PM.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
MAKE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF HYDRATING FLUIDS AND LIMIT TIME SPENT
OUTDOORS, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK FOR MOST AREAS. KNOW THE SIGNS OF
HEAT EXHAUSTION AND CHECK IN ON THOSE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO
THE HEAT, SUCH AS (BUT NOT LIMITED TO) THE ELDERLY, CHILDREN, AND
PETS. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED FOR THIS UPCOMING
EVENT, POTENTIALLY STARTING IN SOME AREAS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY,
BECOMING MORE LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS DIGGING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH OUR REGION IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS TONIGHT, LOOK FOR A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS IN TYPICAL WIND PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY, I-5 CORRIDOR, THE MOUNTAINS OF VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COAST FROM GAVIOTA
TO MISSION CANYON/BOTANICAL GARDENS/MONTECITO HILLS. ALL OF THESE
AREAS ARE UNDER A WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN
THE 35 TO 50 MPH RANGE, EXCEPT ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 MPH ACROSS
HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR AREAS AWAY
FROM THE COAST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO
THE REGION. DURING THIS TIME, LOOKING FOR GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 40
MPH RANGE. IN ADDITION TO TONIGHT, EXPECTING GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS
TO IMPACT SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT (WITH ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES LIKELY), ALONG WITH
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS COMBINED WITH
WARMING/DRYING CONDITIONS WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK OF FIRES
IN AREA OF FINER FUELS (SUCH AS GRASSES) FOR SOUTHERN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY AND THE INTERIOR. THANKS TO OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY, MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
LA COUNTY COAST, WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT EVEN THESE AREAS
WILL BE CLOUD FREE. RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE AND 500 MB
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO 582 DAM. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP 3 TO 6 DEGREES
ACROSS THE COASTS AND 6 TO 12 LOCALLY 15 DEGREES OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY. MOST MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL END UP 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ON TUESDAY BUT HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE A
COUPLE OF DAM UP TO 584 DAM. THE OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AND SKIES
WILL BE CLOUD FREE. MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WILL ONLY WARM 1
OR 2 DEGREES. VTA AND LA COUNTIES, HOWEVER, WILL SEE ANOTHER 4 TO
8 DEGREES OF WARMING AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
AFFECT IN THIS LOCATION. MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS WILL BE IN
THE 70S EXCEPT THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LA/VTA COASTS WHERE
LOWER TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON. THE VALLEYS WILL ALL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE 90S. THESE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT REMAIN JUST UNDER. STILL, PEOPLE WORKING OR PLAYING
OUTSIDE IN THE VALLEYS SHOULD BE AWARE OF HEAT DANGERS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
18/252 PM.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY. THE
VALLEYS WILL SEE MAX TEMPS FROM 95 TO 103 DEGREES (15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) WHILE OTHER AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S TO 90S, AND THE COASTS IN THE 70S TO 80S. IN
ADDITION, THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG INVERSION AROUND 1000 FT
(RIGHT AT MANY VALLEY ELEVATIONS) AND THIS WILL ALSO KEEP MANY
OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MEANS THAT LITTLE RELIEF
WILL COME DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, MAKING THIS STRETCH OF HEAT
MORE OF A CONCERN THAN THE PREVIOUS HEAT WAVE.
SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING SOME COOLING THURSDAY, BUT NOT REALLY ENOUGH TO REDUCE THE
HEAT DANGER. HEAT ADVISORIES LOOK VERY LIKELY FOR BOTH DAYS AND
PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE NOTICE AND PERHAPS ADJUST ANY OUTDOOR PLANS.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND THIS WILL
MAKE THE BEACH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY AS THERE COULD BE A
HUGE TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BEACHES AND THE INLAND AREAS.
THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES BOTH ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
SOME OF THE COASTS. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL 3 TO 6 DEGREES FRIDAY AND
THEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY, MOST MAX TEMPS
WILL ONLY BE 3 OR SO DEGREES OVER NORMAL.
AVIATION
18/2350Z.
AT 2345Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS NEAR 2900 FEET DEEP AT KLAX.
THE TOP OF THE WEAK MARINE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4800 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE NEAR 11 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KLAX, KSMO, AND KLGB. 60% CHANCE
OF MVFR CIGS FOR KLGB AND KLAX LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
WITH A 40% CHANCE OF REACHING KSMO.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. AT KPMD AND KWJF, LIGHT LLWS
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH
10Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD, WITH EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR
CIGS LIKELY BETWEEN 12Z-16Z MONDAY.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
18/742 PM.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST, THERE IS A 80-100 PERCENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR LULLS NEARSHORE ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A
50-80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY, WITH A BRIEF DECREASE TO SCA LEVELS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ZONE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OUTER WATERS, WHILE THE LOWEST
CHANCES WILL BE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AND THE FOR SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR GALE
FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND MAX WIND SPEEDS BEYOND TUESDAY.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, THERE IS A 50-60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOCUSED ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. LOCAL GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE VERY EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CHANNEL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS IN THE
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS. THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE FOR SCA LEVEL
WINDS IN SIMILAR AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS,
BUT STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. ON TUESDAY, THERE IS A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE
TUESDAY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SBA CHANNEL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
352-353-376-377. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONE 378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 381-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE
650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...GOMBERG/LUND
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...LEWIS/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...KL/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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