430
FXUS66 KLOX 191856
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1156 AM PDT MON MAY 19 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
19/908 AM.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HOT WEATHER THIS WEEK, PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND IN THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE GRAPEVINE.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
19/921 AM.
***UPDATE***
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TO TODAY WITH MOST AREAS GAINING
AT LEAST ANOTHER 6-12 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY. AS OF 9AM THIS
MORNING SOME INLAND AND FOOTHILL AREAS ARE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME SO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS ON TRACK.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ONE NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE MODELS SINCE
LAST WEEK IS THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THEY
WERE. IT'S STILL A VERY WARM AIR MASS AND THERE IS SOME LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW TO PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL BOOST, BUT AS OF NOW IT'S
LOOKING LIKE THE PEAK OF THIS EVENT MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS
ORIGINALLY PROJECTED, AND MAY NOT EVEN BE AS WARM AS THE LAST
HEAT EVENT A COUPLE WEEKS AGO. WILL SEE WHAT SOME OF THE HIGHER
RES MODELS AND ENSEMBLES COME IN WITH LATER THIS MORNING BUT WILL
PROBABLY BE KNOCKING DOWN HIGHS FOR MID WEEK WHICH WOULD HAVE AN
IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORIES.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ON TUESDAY BUT HGTS REMAIN AT 582 DAM.
THERE SHOULD BE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND THE EAST IN
THE MORNING ALTHOUGH THE E/W GRADIENT WILL TURN ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UNDER CLOUD FREE
SKIES. MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WILL ONLY WARM 1 OR 2 DEGREES.
VTA AND LA COUNTIES, HOWEVER, WILL SEE ANOTHER 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF
WARMING AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL HAVE THE GREATEST AFFECT IN THIS
LOCATION. MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE CSTS WILL BE IN THE 70S EXCEPT THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LA/VTA CSTS WHERE LOWER TO MID 80S WILL
BE COMMON. THE VLYS WILL SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S. THESE TEMPS
WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT JUST UNDER. STILL, PEOPLE
WORKING OR PLAYING OUTSIDE IN THE VLYS SHOULD BE AWARE OF HEAT
DANGERS.
.THE HOTTEST DAYS (WED-THU)
ANOTHER LITTLE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND HGTS
WILL PEAK AT 595 DAM. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE WITH THE
GRADIENTS WHICH WILL BE WEAK. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY.
THE VLYS WILL SEE MAX TEMPS FROM 95 TO 103 DEGREES (15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 1000 FT (RIGHT AT MANY VLY ELEVATIONS) AND THIS
WILL KEEP MANY OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WARMER THAN
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS WILL COMBINE TO BRING MODERATELY DANGEROUS
HEAT CONDITIONS TO THE VLYS AND LOWER MTN ELEVATIONS.
THURSDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS SLIGHTLY LOWER HGTS AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ARRIVES, BUT IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
TO REDUCE THE HEAT DANGER. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES WITH DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. THERE
WILL BE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND THIS WILL MAKE THE
BEACH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY AS THERE COULD BE A HUGE TEMP
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BEACHES AND THE INLAND AREAS.
PEOPLE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FOR THIS TWO DAY PERIOD SHOULD
TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT RELATED DANGERS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
19/1204 AM.
GOOD MDL AGREEMENT THAT A TROF WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE STATE ON
FRIDAY. HGTS WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH ONLY ABOUT 2 DAM. MORE
IMPORTANTLY THERE WILL BE STRONG ONSHORE TRENDS LEADING TO MDT TO
STG ONSHORE FLOW BOTH TO THE NORTH AND EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND CYCLONIC TURNING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE AN
ABUNDANCE OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL COVER MOST OF THE CSTS
AND SOME OF THE LOWER VLYS. ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL SEE 3 TO 6
DEGREES OF COOLING. STILL WITH CSTL HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND THE VLYS COMING IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
THE REAL COOLING WILL HIT SATURDAY AS HGTS FALL AND ONSHORE FLOW
REMAINS STRONG. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ALTHOUGH MANY
ENSEMBLES SHOW SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE THAN ON FRIDAY. THE BIG NEWS
WILL BE THE TEMPS: LOOK FOR 5 TO 10 LOCALLY 12 DEGREES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE BIGGEST COOLING WILL OCCUR IN THE LA/VTA VLYS. MAX TEMPS
WILL DROP TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER HGTS AND SLIGHTLY LESS ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
19/1855Z.
AT 1814Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 1800 FEET DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAFS. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF MVFR VIS
AND CIGS AT KLGB, KLAX, KSMO, AND KOXR 12Z-17Z TUE.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF 3-6 SM BR
AND BKN010-015 CONDS 12Z-17Z TUE. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND
COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
19/848 AM.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR SEAS RELATIVE TO THE
FORECAST FOR WINDS.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR LULLS NEARSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A 60-90
PERCENT CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING, DECREASING TO A 50-80 PERCENT CHANCE FROM EARLY TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF DECREASE TO SCA
LEVELS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONE MONDAY MORNING. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE OUTER WATERS, WHILE THE LOWEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE FOR SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS. THERE REMAINS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE FOR GALE
FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND MAX WIND SPEEDS BEYOND TUESDAY.
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, THERE IS A 50-70 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, FOLLOWED
BY A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ARE FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL, WHILE THE LOWEST IS FOR THE EASTERN PORTION. THERE ARE
LESSER CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
SOUTH OF POINT MUGU, INTO THE SANTA MONICA BAY AND THE SAN PEDRO
CHANNEL, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS,
BUT THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS GUSTS BRIEFLY
FROM POINT DUME TO PACIFIC PALISADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...HALL/LUND
SYNOPSIS...KL/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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