859
FXUS66 KLOX 192101
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
201 PM PDT MON MAY 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
19/124 PM.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HOT WEATHER THIS WEEK, PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND IN THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE GRAPEVINE.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
19/158 PM.
THE WARMING TREND IS IN FULL SWING TODAY WITH MOST AREAS AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST UP 5-15 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AND SOME AREAS
AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES WARMER. PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO TREND
OFFSHORE AS WELL WHICH IS PROVIDING ANOTHER SOURCE OF WARMING IN
ADDITION THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. WITH THOSE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
WILL ALSO COME SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS, STRONGEST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES DUE TO MODERATE DESCENDING FLOW, BUT
WINDS BETWEEN 900 AND 500MB ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS ARE THE
GRADIENTS SO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE VERY MARGINAL AND
MOSTLY IN UNPOPULATED AREAS.
WARMEST TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY TRENDED "NOT AS HOT" BUT EVEN WITH THE 2-4
DEGREE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES,
WHEN FACTORING IN THE WARMING OVERNIGHT LOWS AND VERY LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW, HEAT RISK VALUES STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE VALLEYS AND LOWER MOUNTAINS,
INCLUDING THE SANTA YNEZ AND SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEYS AS WELL.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ISN'T SUPER HIGH, AND IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IT'S POSSIBLE
SOME OF THE MORE MARGINAL AREAS SUCH AS DOWNTOWN LA, MAY DROP OFF
THE ADVISORY.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
19/200 PM.
GOOD MDL AGREEMENT THAT A TROF WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE STATE ON
FRIDAY. HGTS WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH ONLY ABOUT 2 DAM. MORE
IMPORTANTLY THERE WILL BE STRONG ONSHORE TRENDS LEADING TO MDT TO
STG ONSHORE FLOW BOTH TO THE NORTH AND EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND CYCLONIC TURNING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE AN
ABUNDANCE OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL COVER MOST OF THE CSTS
AND SOME OF THE LOWER VLYS. ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL SEE 3 TO 6
DEGREES OF COOLING. STILL WITH CSTL HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND THE VLYS COMING IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
THE REAL COOLING WILL HIT SATURDAY AS HGTS FALL AND ONSHORE FLOW
REMAINS STRONG. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ALTHOUGH MANY
ENSEMBLES SHOW SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE THAN ON FRIDAY. THE BIG NEWS
WILL BE THE TEMPS: LOOK FOR 5 TO 10 LOCALLY 12 DEGREES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE BIGGEST COOLING WILL OCCUR IN THE LA/VTA VLYS. MAX TEMPS
WILL DROP TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER HGTS AND SLIGHTLY LESS ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
19/1855Z.
AT 1814Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 1800 FEET DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAFS. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF MVFR VIS
AND CIGS AT KLGB, KLAX, KSMO, AND KOXR 12Z-17Z TUE.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF 3-6 SM BR
AND BKN010-015 CONDS 12Z-17Z TUE. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND
COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
19/126 PM.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR SEAS RELATIVE TO THE
FORECAST FOR WINDS.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST, CONDITIONS WILL BE AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
LEVELS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR LULLS NEARSHORE
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THERE IS A 60-90 PERCENT CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, DECREASING TO A 50-80
PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL BE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OUTER WATERS, WHILE
THE LOWEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST AND THE FOR SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THERE REMAINS A
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND MAX WIND SPEEDS BEYOND
TUESDAY.
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, THERE IS A 50-70 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL,
WHILE THE LOWEST IS FOR THE EASTERN PORTION. THERE ARE LESSER
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
SOUTH OF POINT MUGU, INTO THE SANTA MONICA BAY, AND THE SAN PEDRO
CHANNEL, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF SCA
LEVEL WINDS GUSTS BRIEFLY FROM POINT DUME TO PACIFIC PALISADES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONES
88-343-348-351>353-356>358-368-374-375-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 9 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 369>373. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...HALL/LUND
SYNOPSIS...KL/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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