658
FXUS66 KLOX 100315
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
815 PM PDT MON JUN 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
09/714 PM.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH SLOW, IF ANY,
CLEARING AT THE COAST. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS.
SHORT TERM (MON-THU)
09/815 PM.
***UPDATE***
STRONG ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE HELPING TO CREATE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THROUGH THE INTERIOR SECTIONS INTO THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 42 MPH ARE AFFECTING THE
AREA AROUND LAKE PALMDALE, AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS SW SANTA BARBARA COUNTY, BUT
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS BUILDING
ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST, AND THE RISING HEIGHTS ARE
SUPPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER. SO WHILE THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS
DECK WILL BE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, THE SHALLOWER
LAYER SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY COASTAL AREAS AND THE COASTAL VALLEYS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, TODAY HIGHS RANGED FROM 60S ALONG THE COAST,
TO 70S AND 80S OVER THE VALLEYS, TO THE 90S TO LOW 100S OVER THE
FAR INTERIOR. MOST AREAS WILL WARM ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 8 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY, EXCEPT FOR THE DESERTS WHICH SHOULD SEE LITTLE CHANGE.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE CONSISTENT THROUGH THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
ANOTHER TYPICAL JUNE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND A SLOW CLEARING MARINE LAYER. DESPITE
THIS SOME AREAS TODAY DID WARM UP SLIGHTLY AND EXPECTING A LITTLE
MORE OF THAT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REPLACES THE UPPER LOW FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
PROBABLY WON'T HAVE MUCH IMPACT AT THE COAST WHERE THE MARINE
LAYER WILL LIKELY STILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, BUT A LITTLE
FARTHER INLAND TEMPS SHOULD RISE 2-4 DEGREES FROM TODAY WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST LOW 90S ACROSS THE WARMER VALLEYS AND LOW
80S DOWNTOWN. THEN SLIGHT COOLING THU/FRI AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PAC NW AND PUSHES THE RIDGE INTO AZ.
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY DURING THE EVENINGS BUT LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS (IE. MOSTLY BELOW 40 MPH). SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
09/201 PM.
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN TEMPERATURES STARTING SATURDAY AND PEAKING
SUNDAY AND MONDAY (MOSTLY INLAND). THIS IS PREDICATED ON A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER AZ EXPANDING NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WHILE MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS NOW ARE
SUPPORTING THIS, IT ALSO WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH OF A SOUTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW TO PREVENT THE HIGH FROM
EXPANDING OVER CALIFORNIA AND MAINTAINING MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES LOCALLY. FOR NOW THE FORECAST DOES GO WITH THE
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE VALLEYS AND
AROUND 100 IN THE AV, BUT LIKE WITH THE LAST COUPLE DAYS COULD
EASILY SEE THIS BEING A MORE TYPICAL JUNE-LIKE PATTERN WITH
VALLEYS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND COASTAL AREAS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION
09/1746Z.
AT 1708Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE INVERSION WAS 2400 FEET DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 4400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24
DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KBUR, AND KVNY. THERE IS A
30% CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDS AT KPRB BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A
10% CHANCE CIGS DON'T REACH KBUR/KVNY TONIGHT, BUT IF THEY DO,
MINIMUM FLIGHT CAT MAY BE OFF ONE AND FLIGHT CAT CHANGE TIMES MAY
BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ALL COASTAL TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR NO
CLEARING AT KSBA (20%), KOXR (40%), KCMA (30%), KSMO (30%), KLAX
(40%), AND KLGB (20%). OTHERWISE, ARRIVAL OF CIGS MAY BE OFF +/- 2
HOURS. MINIMUM FLIGHT CATS MAY BE OFF +/- ONE CAT WHEN CIGS ARE
PRESENT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE FOR NO
CLEARING TODAY. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 2
HOURS FROM CURRENT FORECASTS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR AN EAST
WIND COMPONENT REACHING 8 KTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. MINIMUM FLIGHT
CAT MAY BE OFF BY ONE CAT ONCE CIGS ARRIVE.
MARINE
09/129 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WITH
POSSIBLE LULLS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL APPROACH SCA
LEVELS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR TODAY, THERE IS A 30-40%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR SCA LEVELS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WITH A 30-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/CILIBERTI
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...RAT/LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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