623
FXUS66 KLOX 101748
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1048 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
10/1225 AM.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH SLOW, IF ANY,
CLEARING AT THE COAST. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
10/1047 AM.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER
THE AREA, WITH RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS. THESE RISING HEIGHTS ARE
RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARMING ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR AREAS,
WHILE ALSO HELPING "SQUASH" THE MARINE LAYER. THE MARINE LAYER
BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE SHALLOW, PAIRED WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF
ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON, WILL HELP CLEAR THE VALLEYS OF CLOUDS A
LITTLE QUICKER COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, LEADING TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. AT THE
COAST, HOWEVER, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED AS SLOW CLEARING, IF
ANY, IS EXPECTED. ALL THIS TO SAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THE
COASTS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S, WHILE WARMER VALLEYS WILL BE
IN AT LEAST LOW 90S, AND THE FAR INTERIOR (SUCH AS ANTELOPE
VALLEY) WILL BE IN THE HIGH 90S TO LOW 100S TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEN
SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW AND PUSHES THE RIDGE INTO AZ.
GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY DURING THE EVENINGS, WITH TONIGHT BEING THE
STRONGEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 45-50 MPH. THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN
SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN SBA COAST. HOWEVER, THE
FOLLOWING EVENINGS WILL LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS (IE. MOSTLY
BELOW 40 MPH). SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS, BUT REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
10/245 AM.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
RISE IN TEMPERATURES STARTING SATURDAY AND PEAKING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, RIVALING THE TEMPERATURES WE ARE EXPERIENCING EARLY THIS
WEEK (MOSTLY INLAND). HOWEVER, THIS IS PREDICATED ON THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER AZ EXPANDING NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WHILE MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS NOW ARE
SUPPORTING THIS, EVEN A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWARD POSITIONING OF
THE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW COULD PREVENT THE HIGH FROM EXPANDING
OVER CALIFORNIA, RESULTING IN MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES LOCALLY.
FOR NOW THE FORECAST DOES GO WITH THE WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE VALLEYS AND AROUND 100 IN THE AV, BUT
LIKE WITH THE LAST COUPLE DAYS COULD EASILY SEE THIS BEING A MORE
TYPICAL JUNE- LIKE PATTERN WITH VALLEYS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND
COASTAL AREAS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION
10/1745Z.
AT 1656Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 2100 FEET.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 25 DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KBUR, AND KVNY. THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE VFR CONDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KPRB, AND A 20%
CHANCE AT KBUR/KVNY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MINIMUM FLIGHT CAT
BEING LIFR, BUT TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT CHANGES MAY BE OFF +/- 2
HOURS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING COASTAL TAFS. TRANSITION TO VFR
MAY BE OFF +/- 90 MINUTES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR NO
CLEARING AT KSBA (30%), KOXR (40%), KCMA (20%). MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN MINIMUM FLIGHT CATS, BUT TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT
CHANGES MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR LIFR
CONDS AT KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX, AND KLGB TONIGHT, HIGHEST CHANCES
AT KOXR/KCMA.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FOR TONIGHT, FLIGHT CAT
CHANGES MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS, BUT BKN TO SCT010-020 MAY OCCUR AT
TIMES THROUGH 02Z. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF CIGS OVC002-004
TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES
COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DO NOT DEVELOP TONIGHT.
MARINE
10/905 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
(WITH SOME TEMPORARY LULLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING
HOURS). SEAS WILL APPROACH SCA LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR TODAY, SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THERE IS A 70-90% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL
APPROACH SCA LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS THIS EVENING THEN A 30-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
PUBLIC...MW/LUND
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...RAT/LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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