484
FXUS66 KLOX 102045
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
10/112 PM.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH SLOW, IF ANY,
CLEARING AT THE COAST. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
10/129 PM.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN IS EXPECTED AT LEAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES TODAY IN
MOST AREAS AS WEAK HI PRESSURE ALOFT LOWERED THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH AND STRATUS CLEARED EARLIER. THE HIGH DOES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF TODAYS'S LEVELS. THERE MAY
BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH MAY BRING CLOUDS A BIT FARTHER INLAND BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.
AND AS USUAL THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL A VERY TYPICAL JUNE PATTERN.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
10/143 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING AGAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE MID TO
HI 90S FOR THE VALLEYS WITH AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE OF HIGHS UP TO
AROUND 102-104 IN THE WARMEST VALLEYS, PEAKING ON SUNDAY. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR WEST THE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND NEAR 100 OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE WARMER COASTAL VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS. IN ADDITION, A DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER WILL PUSH MARINE LAYER STRATUS FARTHER INLAND WITH
SLOWER CLEARING.
AVIATION
10/1745Z.
AT 1656Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 2100 FEET.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 25 DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KBUR, AND KVNY. THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE VFR CONDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KPRB, AND A 20%
CHANCE AT KBUR/KVNY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MINIMUM FLIGHT CAT
BEING LIFR, BUT TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT CHANGES MAY BE OFF +/- 2
HOURS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING COASTAL TAFS. TRANSITION TO VFR
MAY BE OFF +/- 90 MINUTES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR NO
CLEARING AT KSBA (30%), KOXR (40%), KCMA (20%). MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN MINIMUM FLIGHT CATS, BUT TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT
CHANGES MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR LIFR
CONDS AT KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX, AND KLGB TONIGHT, HIGHEST CHANCES
AT KOXR/KCMA.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FOR TONIGHT, FLIGHT CAT
CHANGES MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS, BUT BKN TO SCT010-020 MAY OCCUR AT
TIMES THROUGH 02Z. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF CIGS OVC002-004
TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES
COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DO NOT DEVELOP TONIGHT.
MARINE
10/136 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
(WITH SOME TEMPORARY LULLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING
HOURS). SEAS WILL APPROACH SCA LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR TODAY, SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
THERE IS A 70-90% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL APPROACH SCA LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS THIS EVENING THEN A 30-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...RAT/LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
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