056
FXUS66 KLOX 110505
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1005 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
10/936 PM.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH SLOW, IF ANY,
CLEARING AT THE COAST. AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL REMAIN MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)
10/935 PM.
***UPDATE***
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE DEVELOPING
MOSTLY AS EXPECTED, AND SHOULD FILL IN MOST COASTAL AND SOME
VALLEY AREAS BY DAY BREAK. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE
UNDER-PERFORMING A BIT, BUT WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING.
ANOTHER WARM DAY STILL ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW AWAY FROM THE COAST.
NO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE PLANNED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN IS EXPECTED AT LEAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES TODAY IN
MOST AREAS AS WEAK HI PRESSURE ALOFT LOWERED THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH AND STRATUS CLEARED EARLIER. THE HIGH DOES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF TODAYS'S LEVELS. THERE MAY
BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH MAY BRING CLOUDS A BIT FARTHER INLAND BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.
AND AS USUAL THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL A VERY TYPICAL JUNE PATTERN.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
10/143 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING AGAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE MID TO
HI 90S FOR THE VALLEYS WITH AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE OF HIGHS UP TO
AROUND 102-104 IN THE WARMEST VALLEYS, PEAKING ON SUNDAY. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR WEST THE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND NEAR 100 OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE WARMER COASTAL VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS. IN ADDITION, A DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER WILL PUSH MARINE LAYER STRATUS FARTHER INLAND WITH
SLOWER CLEARING.
AVIATION
11/0038Z.
AT 2300Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 1500 FEET.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE VFR CONDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KPRB AND TIMING OF
FLIGHT CAT CHANGES MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. FOR COASTAL TAFS, TRANSITION
TO VFR MAY BE OFF +/- 90 MINUTES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
NO CLEARING AT KSBA (30%), KOXR (40%), KCMA (20%). MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MINIMUM FLIGHT CATS, BUT TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT
CHANGES MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLIGHT CAT CHANGES MAY BE OFF
+/- 2 HOURS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LIFR CIGS. NO
SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES
COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DO NOT DEVELOP TONIGHT.
MARINE
10/953 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
(WITH SOME TEMPORARY LULLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING
HOURS). SEAS WILL APPROACH SCA LEVELS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY REACHING 10 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL END TONIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THERE IS A 70-90% CHANCE OF SCA
LEVEL WINDS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL
APPROACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST, WITH SCA LEVEL WINDS ENDING
OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RK
AVIATION...PHILLIPS/LEWIS
MARINE...PHILLIPS/LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW/RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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