221
FXUS66 KLOX 110729
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1229 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
10/936 PM.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH SLOW, IF ANY,
CLEARING AT THE COAST. AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL REMAIN MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)
10/935 PM.
***UPDATE***
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE DEVELOPING
MOSTLY AS EXPECTED, AND SHOULD FILL IN MOST COASTAL AND SOME
VALLEY AREAS BY DAY BREAK. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE
UNDER-PERFORMING A BIT, BUT WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING.
ANOTHER WARM DAY STILL ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW AWAY FROM THE COAST.
NO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE PLANNED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN IS EXPECTED AT LEAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES TODAY IN
MOST AREAS AS WEAK HI PRESSURE ALOFT LOWERED THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH AND STRATUS CLEARED EARLIER. THE HIGH DOES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF TODAYS'S LEVELS. THERE MAY
BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH MAY BRING CLOUDS A BIT FARTHER INLAND BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.
AND AS USUAL THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL A VERY TYPICAL JUNE PATTERN.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
10/143 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING AGAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE MID TO
HI 90S FOR THE VALLEYS WITH AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE OF HIGHS UP TO
AROUND 102-104 IN THE WARMEST VALLEYS, PEAKING ON SUNDAY. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR WEST THE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND NEAR 100 OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE WARMER COASTAL VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS. IN ADDITION, A DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER WILL PUSH MARINE LAYER STRATUS FARTHER INLAND WITH
SLOWER CLEARING.
AVIATION
11/0727Z.
AT 0655Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 700 FEET DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 4600 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE VFR CONDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KPRB AND TIMING OF
FLIGHT CAT CHANGES MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. FOR COASTAL TAFS, TRANSITION
TO VFR MAY BE OFF +/- 90 MINUTES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
NO CLEARING AT KSBA (30%), KOXR (40%), KCMA (20%), KLAX (30%), AND
KSMO (30%). MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MINIMUM FLIGHT CATS,
BUT TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT CHANGES MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLIGHT CAT CHANGES MAY
BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LIFR CIGS. THERE
IS A 30% CHANCE OF NO VFR TRANSITION IN THE AFTERNOON. NO
SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
THAT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS DO NOT DEVELOP TONIGHT.
MARINE
11/1218 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
(WITH SOME TEMPORARY LULLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING
HOURS). ALSO, THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED GUSTS THAT APPROACH
GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY EVENING AROUND POINT CONCEPTION (20% CHANCE).
SEAS WILL APPROACH SCA LEVELS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY, POSSIBLY
REACHING 10 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
THERE IS A 70-90% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL APPROACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY
AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THERE IS 70% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVE, WITH A 30-50% CHANCE EACH DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND AND SEAS REMAINING
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ZONES 349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW/RK
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...BLACK/PHILLIPS/LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW/RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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