558
FXUS66 KLOX 111033
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
333 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
11/1230 AM.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH SLOW, IF ANY,
CLEARING AT THE COAST. AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL REMAIN MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
11/332 AM.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN SETS UP IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. THE HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND 500 MB HEIGHTS
WILL ONLY DECREASE 1 TO 2 DAM, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF THE PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THE
COAST WILL BE IN THE 60S TO 70S, WITH WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
DECREASING AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS, THIS
MAY RESULT IN A A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER, WITH CLOUDS
EXPANDING A BIT MORE INLAND AGAIN.
AND AS USUAL THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. OVERALL, A VERY
TYPICAL JUNE PATTERN.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
11/331 AM.
ANOTHER WARM UP IS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND, THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN EXACT TEMPERATURES. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD FROM ARIZONA - HOWEVER, HOW
FAR THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE AREA REMAINS THE
QUESTION. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL INCREASE BACK UP TO THE MID TO HIGH 90S IN THE
VALLEYS, WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY. IF THE HIGH PRESSURE DECIDES TO EXPAND FURTHER WESTWARD,
THERE IS AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE OF HIGHS INCREASING TO AROUND 100
DEGREES IN THE WARMEST OF VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS. IN ADDITION, A DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER WILL PUSH MARINE LAYER STRATUS FARTHER INLAND WITH
SLOWER CLEARING.
AVIATION
11/0727Z.
AT 0655Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 700 FEET DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 4600 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE VFR CONDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KPRB AND TIMING OF
FLIGHT CAT CHANGES MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. FOR COASTAL TAFS, TRANSITION
TO VFR MAY BE OFF +/- 90 MINUTES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
NO CLEARING AT KSBA (30%), KOXR (40%), KCMA (20%), KLAX (30%), AND
KSMO (30%). MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MINIMUM FLIGHT CATS,
BUT TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT CHANGES MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLIGHT CAT CHANGES MAY
BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LIFR CIGS. THERE
IS A 30% CHANCE OF NO VFR TRANSITION IN THE AFTERNOON. NO
SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
THAT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS DO NOT DEVELOP TONIGHT.
MARINE
11/1218 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
(WITH SOME TEMPORARY LULLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING
HOURS). ALSO, THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED GUSTS THAT APPROACH
GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY EVENING AROUND POINT CONCEPTION (20% CHANCE).
SEAS WILL APPROACH SCA LEVELS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY, POSSIBLY
REACHING 10 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
THERE IS A 70-90% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL APPROACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY
AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THERE IS 70% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVE, WITH A 30-50% CHANCE EACH DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND AND SEAS REMAINING
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM
PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...LUND/MW
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...BLACK/PHILLIPS/LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW/RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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