593
FXUS66 KLOX 112104
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
204 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
11/1230 AM.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH SLOW, IF ANY,
CLEARING AT THE COAST. AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL REMAIN MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
11/332 AM.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN SETS UP IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. THE HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND 500 MB HEIGHTS
WILL ONLY DECREASE 1 TO 2 DAM, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF THE PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THE
COAST WILL BE IN THE 60S TO 70S, WITH WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
DECREASING AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS, THIS
MAY RESULT IN A A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER, WITH CLOUDS
EXPANDING A BIT MORE INLAND AGAIN.
AND AS USUAL THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. OVERALL, A VERY
TYPICAL JUNE PATTERN.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
11/331 AM.
ANOTHER WARM UP IS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND, THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN EXACT TEMPERATURES. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD FROM ARIZONA - HOWEVER, HOW
FAR THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE AREA REMAINS THE
QUESTION. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL INCREASE BACK UP TO THE MID TO HIGH 90S IN THE
VALLEYS, WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY. IF THE HIGH PRESSURE DECIDES TO EXPAND FURTHER WESTWARD,
THERE IS AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE OF HIGHS INCREASING TO AROUND 100
DEGREES IN THE WARMEST OF VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS. IN ADDITION, A DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER WILL PUSH MARINE LAYER STRATUS FARTHER INLAND WITH
SLOWER CLEARING.
AVIATION
11/2101Z.
AT 2030Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 1400 FEET DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 3500 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE WHERE FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES
MAY BE OFF 2-3 HOURS AND ONE FLIGHT CATEGORY, ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z. THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR
KPRB BETWEEN 10-17Z.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLIGHT CAT CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY 3
HOURS ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF
CLEARING THROUGH 06Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT IS
EXPECTED.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES
COULD BE OFF BY 3 HOURS.
MARINE
11/201 PM.
PERSISTENT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL A PROLONG PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CONDITIONS TO THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES NEAR THE
CHANNEL ISLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WITH A 30-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES AGAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL AND NORTHERN INNER WATERS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON
TO EVENING HOURS, THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS NEXT
MONDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...LUND/LUND/MW
AVIATION...MUNROE
MARINE...MUNROE
SYNOPSIS...MW/RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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