139
FXUS66 KLOX 120614
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1114 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
11/820 PM.
MINOR DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COAST AND
VALLEYS WITH SLOW, IF ANY, CLEARING AT THE COAST. AREAS AWAY FROM
THE COAST WILL REMAIN DRIER AND MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.
SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)
11/817 PM.
***UPDATE***
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE GENERALLY STAYING JUST OFF THE COAST
(EXCEPT FOR LOS ANGELES COUNTY) BUT DO NOT SEE ANY REASON WHY THEY
WILL NOT QUICKLY SURGE BACK IN TONIGHT WITH A SIMILAR COVERAGE AS
LAST NIGHT. THE SUNDOWNER WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY ENDED BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED, SO WE THREW
OUT A LAST-MINUTE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DID SOME
OTHER MINOR MOP UP WORK ON THE FORECAST BUT OVERALL EVERYTHING IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES AND A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE LAYER THAT IS EXPECTED
TO AGAIN REACH MANY OF THE COASTAL VALLEYS. A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO EXPAND WEST FROM ARIZONA.
HIGHS WILL WARM 2-5 DEGREES AREA-WIDE WITH THE BIGGEST INCREASES
IN AREAS WHERE THE ELEVATION IS IN THE 800-2000 FEET RANGE, WHICH
INCLUDES THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND LOWER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. AT THIS
TIME TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
11/304 PM.
ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS. IN ADDITION, A
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER WILL PUSH MARINE LAYER STRATUS FARTHER
INLAND WITH SLOWER CLEARING.
AVIATION
12/0613Z.
AT 05Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1200 FEET DEEP, WITH AN
INVERSION TOP AT 2800 FT AND A TEMPERATURE OF 22 CELSIUS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SIMILAR CEILING, VISIBILITY AND WIND
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE PREVIOUS (PLUS OR MINUS 2
HOURS ON TIMING). COASTAL AND VALLEY SITES HAVE A 10-20% CHANCE
FOR BRIEF LIFR CIGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLIGHT CAT CHANGES MAY BE OFF
BY 2 HOURS. CIG HGT MAY BE OFF BY +/- 200FT. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHC OF 1 TO 2 HOURS OF SCT CONDS IN THE AFTERNOON. NO
SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE OFF BY 2 HOURS. CIG HGT MAY BE OFF BY +/- 200FT.
MARINE
11/923 PM.
GUSTY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, GALES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL AND
NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE, A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS ZONES PZZ670 AND PZZ673. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR GALES IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING, MOSTLY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL.
THERE IS A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES AGAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS CAN EXPECT REOCCURRING EVENING SCA
LEVEL WINDS GUSTS, WITH A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED GALE FORCE WINDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO FAR WESTERN SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR SCA WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXTENDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS NEXT MONDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/LUND/MW
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...PHILLIPS
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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