494
FXUS66 KLOX 121830
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1130 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
12/1011 AM.
ONLY MINOR DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COAST AND VALLEYS WITH SLOW, IF ANY, CLEARING AT THE COAST. AREAS
AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
12/1010 AM.
***UPDATE***
THE MARINE LAYER IS CURRENTLY AROUND 2000 FEET DEEP, WITH A
CATALINA EDDY SET UP SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THAT IS ADDING SOME
LIFT AND DRIZZLE. CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY SPREAD ACROSS MOST COASTS
AND VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY FOR LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES, AND SLOW
CLEARING IS AGAIN EXPECTED. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
VERY TYPICAL JUNE GLOOM WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM. ONCE
AGAIN CLEARING WILL BE SLOW AND MANY BEACHES WILL SEE NO
CLEARING. 587 DAM HGTS WILL BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO THE
MTNS AND FAR INTERIOR, WHILE THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP VLY TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL AND THE COASTS BELOW NORMAL.
IT WILL BE HARD TO TELL TODAY APART FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN BOTH THE HGTS AND THE SFC GRADIENTS. THE
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL CHANGE LITTLE. MAX TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES, THE 70S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CSTS (WITH A SMATTERING OF 80 OR 81 DEGREE
READINGS) AND THE 80S IN THE VLYS (WITH ONE OR TWO SITES AT AN
EVEN 90)
GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL OCCUR EACH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
12/1011 AM.
XTND MDLS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER YUMA WITH SW FLOW AND 588 HGTS OVER LA COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE SFC GRADIENTS AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF MORNING LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CSTS/VLYS WITH SLOW CLEARING AND NO CLEARING FOR
SOME WEST FACING BEACHES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY'S VALUES.
THE FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT OF A MYSTERY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE GFS AND EC QUICKLY DIVERGE AFTER DISAGREEING ON HOW TO HANDLE
A TROF ON MONDAY (THE GFS FASTER WHILE THE EC IS SLOWER AND
SHARPER). BY TUESDAY THE EC DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW WHILE THE GFS
BUILDS A RIDGE. THE ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY SPLIT ON THE OUTCOME AND
THE BLENDED ADJUSTED TEMPS SEEM TO REFLECT THE AVERAGE OF THE
WARMER GFS AND COOLER EC. NO MATTER THE OUTCOME THE WEATHER WILL
NOT CHANGE MUCH AND WILL NOT PRODUCE HAZARDS - MAYBE A LITTLE LESS
MORNING CLOUDS IN THE VLYS.
AVIATION
12/1816Z.
AT 1735Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2000 FEET DEEP, WITH AN
INVERSION TOP AT 7100 FT AND A TEMPERATURE OF 23 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KPMD AND KWJF.
LOW CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE TIMING OF CIG
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTION CHANGES
MAY VARY BY +/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT CATS MAY BE OFF BY ONE OR TWO
AT TIMES. THERE IS A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT KOXR, KSMO, AND
KLGB WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO CLEARING TODAY.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTION CHANGES MAY VARY BY +/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT CATS MAY BE
OFF BY ONE OR TWO AT TIMES. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SCT CONDS
FROM 22Z THU TO 03Z FRI. OTHERWISE, CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH FCST PD. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED,
BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10Z-16Z FRI.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTION
ARRIVALS THIS EVENING MAY VARY BY +/- 2 HOURS, AND FLIGHT CATS
MAY BE OFF BY ONE OR TWO AT TIMES.
MARINE
12/1017 AM.
GALE WARNING MOVED FORWARD TO START NOW FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS
GALE CONDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
GUSTY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED GALE WATCH FOR PZZ670/673 HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING - THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVE INTO THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. DUE TO RECENT TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS, PZZ676
HAS ALSO BEEN UPGRADED FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD - STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS.
THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR GALES FRIDAY EVENING, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL. THERE IS A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
GALES AGAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED MORE SO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY CONFINED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE
HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR SCA CONDS TO REACH EASTERN PORTIONS OF SBA CHANNEL
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PZZ655.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES
670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE/SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...BLACK/RM
SYNOPSIS...RK
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