962
FXUS66 KLOX 122130
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
12/122 PM.
AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND MUCH WARMER THAN
NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT PEAKING ON SUNDAY. NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COAST
AND VALLEYS WITH SLOW, IF ANY, CLEARING AT THE COAST.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
12/209 PM.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS A
RESULT OF A BRIEF BUMP IN 500 MB HEIGHTS DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SUNDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST
DAY, WHEN VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PEAK IN THE MID 90S,
WITH UP TO AROUND 102 DEGREES FOR THE DESERTS. THIS IS AROUND 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS, AND HEAT PRODUCTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE NECESSARY. THE BEACHES AND COASTAL PLAINS WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S (AROUND 85 DEGREES
LIKELY FOR DTLA).
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS, DESPITE THE BRIEF BUILDING HEAT FURTHER
INLAND, THE JUNE GLOOM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS. ONSHORE FLOW AND A CATALINA EDDY
WILL RESULT IN THE SLOW BURNOFF OF MORNING CLOUDS, AND SOME
BEACHES (ESPECIALLY IN LA/VENTURA COUNTIES) MAY SEE LITTLE TO NO
CLEARING EACH DAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR EACH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY (SUNDOWNER WINDS) AND ACROSS
THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 45 MPH COMMON AND
LOCAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH AROUND GAVIOTA. OVERALL STRONG SW TO NE
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
12/229 PM.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN STARTING ON MONDAY NEXT WEEK AND ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY.
OVERALL THE ENSEMBLES SHOW MANY OPTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND
SPEED OF A WEAK TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE THAT MAY IMPACT THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A COOLER DEEP MARINE LAYER (JUNE GLOOM)
PATTERN, AND THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM
SPELL. BY WEDNESDAY, MODELS OVERALL FAVOR BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
TREND UPWARDS, ESPECIALLY INLAND. THERE IS A NONE-ZERO CHANCE
SOME OF SOME HEAT PRODUCTS BEING NEEDED SOMEWHERE IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME PERIOD FOR THE WARMEST DESERT AND
VALLEY AREAS.
AVIATION
12/1816Z.
AT 1735Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2000 FEET DEEP, WITH AN
INVERSION TOP AT 7100 FT AND A TEMPERATURE OF 23 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KPMD AND KWJF.
LOW CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE TIMING OF CIG
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTION CHANGES
MAY VARY BY +/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT CATS MAY BE OFF BY ONE OR TWO
AT TIMES. THERE IS A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT KOXR, KSMO, AND
KLGB WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO CLEARING TODAY.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTION CHANGES MAY VARY BY +/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT CATS MAY BE
OFF BY ONE OR TWO AT TIMES. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SCT CONDS
FROM 22Z THU TO 03Z FRI. OTHERWISE, CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH FCST PD. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED,
BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10Z-16Z FRI.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTION
ARRIVALS THIS EVENING MAY VARY BY +/- 2 HOURS, AND FLIGHT CATS
MAY BE OFF BY ONE OR TWO AT TIMES.
MARINE
12/223 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GALE
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING FOR THE OUTER
WATERS WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXTENDED OR REISSUED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.
THERE IS A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES AGAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE FOCUSED MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY CONFINED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE
HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR SCA CONDS TO REACH EASTERN PORTIONS OF SBA CHANNEL
AND AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF PZZ655.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES
670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...MUNROE/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...RK/RS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
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