281  
FXUS66 KLOX 130635  
AFDLOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA  
1135 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
12/804 PM.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDING INTO THE SONORAN DESERT WILL BUILD  
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WHILE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE  
COASTAL SECTIONS ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL, THE AIR MASS WILL  
HEAT UP OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT  
WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE  
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)  
12/837 PM.  
 
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER  
BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AND EXPANDING THE SONORAN DESERT.  
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN A TYPICAL LATE JUNE PATTERN SETUP. THE AIR  
MASS WILL HEAT UP AWAY FROM THE COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHILE NEAR THE COAST AND BEACHES, ONSHORE  
FLOW WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HUGGING THE COAST. MORE JUNE  
GLOOM LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT THE BEACHES AND  
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. KLAX-KDAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS  
ARE STILL PROGGED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS  
500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMB AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE.  
EPS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE VALLEY AREAS TO START FEELING MORE OF  
THE HEAT EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH ONSHORE  
FLOW WEAKENING SOME. THE VALLEYS WILL START TO POP ABOVE NORMAL  
STARTING ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS LESS MARINE INFLUENCE WORKS ITS  
WAY INTO THE VALLEYS. EPS MAX TEMPERATURE MEAN CLIMB THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND AT KPOC, KBUR, AND KIZA. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST VALLEY  
AREAS COULD REACH THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR MOST VALLEY  
LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING OR ECLIPSING THE  
100 DEGREE MARK IN THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS.  
 
A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN WILL MOVE  
TOWARD THE WEST COAST THROUGH MONDAY AND LIKELY BRUSH THE AREA  
MONDAY. WHILE THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY SERVE TO INCREASE ONSHORE  
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND, A DYING  
COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE  
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE. EARLY MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST KSBA-KSMX  
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN TO -4 TO -5 MB ON SUNDAY  
AND MONDAY NIGHTS, WHILE EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST HIGH  
TEMPERATURE MEANS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR KSBA EACH DAY. ECMWF  
EXTREME FORECAST INDICES SUGGESTS THE PATTERN TO BE STRONGER THAN  
CFSR PERIOD, WHILE NAEFS WIND ANOMALIES SUGGEST THE COASTAL WINDS  
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY TO  
BE GREATER THAN 99TH PERCENTILE FOR CFSR PERIOD. CONCERN IS  
GROWING FOR SIGNIFICANT SUNDOWNER WIND EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK  
BRINGING HOT TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHERN SANTA  
BARBARA COUNTY.  
 
AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  
 
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***  
   
LONG TERM (MON-THU)  
12/229 PM.  
 
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL  
PATTERN STARTING ON MONDAY NEXT WEEK AND ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY.  
OVERALL THE ENSEMBLES SHOW MANY OPTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND  
SPEED OF A WEAK TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE THAT MAY IMPACT THE  
REGION. AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST EARLY  
NEXT WEEK AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL.  
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A COOLER DEEP MARINE LAYER (JUNE GLOOM)  
PATTERN, AND THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM  
SPELL. BY WEDNESDAY, MODELS OVERALL FAVOR BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO  
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO  
TREND UPWARDS, ESPECIALLY INLAND. THERE IS A NONE-ZERO CHANCE  
SOME OF SOME HEAT PRODUCTS BEING NEEDED SOMEWHERE IN THE  
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME PERIOD FOR THE WARMEST DESERT AND  
VALLEY AREAS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
13/0633Z.  
 
AT 0505Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1700 FEET DEEP, WITH AN  
INVERSION TOP AT 3900 FT AND A TEMPERATURE OF 22 C.  
 
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KPMD AND KWJF.  
 
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS - FLIGHT CAT CHANGES COULD BE OFF BY  
AS MUCH AS 2 HOURS AND CIG HGT BY +/- 200 FT.  
 
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLIGHT CAT CHANGES COULD BE  
OFF BY AS MUCH AS 2 HOURS AND CIG HGT BY +/- 200 FT. THERE IS A 30  
PERCENT CHC NO NO SCT CONDS IN THE AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST  
WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.  
 
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTION  
ARRIVALS THIS EVENING MAY VARY BY +/- 2 HOURS, AND CIG HGT BY +/-  
200 FT.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
12/810 PM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER  
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GALE WARNING  
ACROSS ALL OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT,  
WITH A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING REISSUED FOR THE FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE IS A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE  
OF GALES AGAIN ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED MORE SO ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.  
 
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, SCA LEVEL NW  
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, AND THESE WINDS WILL  
LIKELY CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
NEARSHORE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF SCA  
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA  
CHANNEL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, WITH SIMILAR CHANCES  
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLY  
SPREADING TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL BY MONDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES  
376>378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE  
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES  
670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
 
 
 
 
 
PUBLIC...HALL/SCHOENFELD  
AVIATION...RORKE  
MARINE...CILIBERTI  
SYNOPSIS...HALL  
 
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES  
 
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX  
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