996
FXUS66 KLOX 131131
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
431 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
13/217 AM.
INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE EACH DAY. THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE
COOLING EFFECTS OF THE MARINE LAYER. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND
THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
13/300 AM.
DRY WSW FLOW WITH 586 HGTS IS OVER SRN CA. AT THE SFC THERE IS
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND NEAR NEUTRAL FLOW IN THE N/S
DIRECTION. THE MARINE LAYER IS 1700 FT DEEP AND LOW CLOUDS COVER
MOST OF THE CSTS AND VLYS FROM WESTERN SBA COUNTY DOWN TO THE
MEXICAN BORDER. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS SLO COUNTY IS KEEP THEIR
COASTLINE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. A LOCAL N TO S GRADIENT IS
BRINGING LOW END ADVISORY GUSTS TO THE I-5 CORRIDOR THROUGH MID
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
AND MANY BEACHES SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO
CLEARING. RISING HGTS WILL BRING SOME WARMING TO MOST AREAS SLO
AND ESP SBA COUNTIES WILL SEE THE MOST WARMING AS LOCAL OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS DEVELOP. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE BEACHES WITH 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTAL AREAS
AND 80S IN THE VLY.
LOCAL SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SBA SOUTHCOAST TONIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP THAT AREA
CLOUD FREE. OTHERWISE, STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING THE LOW
CLOUDS BACK INTO MOST CSTS AND VLYS.
HGTS BULGE UP TO 590 DAM AS A STRONG UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER
WESTERN NM. THE HIGHER HGTS WILL SMOOSH THE MARINE LAYER OUT OF
SOME OF THE HIGHER VLYS. MORE IMPORTANTLY THERE WILL BE WEAKER
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND ACTUAL OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH
(IN THE MORNING). THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR A LITTLE FASTER AND
MORE COMPLETELY. ALL OF THESE THINGS WILL COMBINE TO BRING 2 TO 4
DEGREES OF WARMING TO LA/VTA/ SBA COUNTIES. THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
OVER SLO COUNTY TODAY WILL SWITCH TO ONSHORE AND COOL THAT COUNTY
SOME. THE WARMEST VLY LOCATIONS WILL SEE MAX TEMPS OF 90 TO 91
DEGREES WHILE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL BE COMMON IN THE ANTELOPE
VLY.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST HGTS, THE WEAKEST ONSHORE FLOW TO
THE EAST AND THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A MODERATE OFFSHORE N TO S PUSH ACROSS SBA COUNTY.
THE HIGH HGTS WILL SMOOSH THE MARINE LAYER TO UNDER 1000 FT AND
LIMIT THE VLY PENETRATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
ACROSS SBA COUNTY WILL KEEP THAT AREA CLOUD FREE. THE WEAKER
ONSHORE PUSH SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WITH 3
TO 6 DEGREES OF WARMING ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE AREAS. THE BIG
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SBA SOUTH COAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING ABOUT 12 DEGREES OF WARMING. MOST AREAS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE BEACHES IN THE 70S,
THE REST OF THE CSTS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S AND THE
VLYS WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S. THE ANTELOPE VLY WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS
FROM 101 TO 103 DEGREES.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
13/310 AM.
AFTER TWO DAYS OF DISAGREEMENT THE XTND MDLS ARE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE XTND FCST. IT NOW LOOKS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE
WEAK TROFFING ON MON AND TUE FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING ON WED AND
THU. AT THE SAME TIME THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE INCREASING. THE
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH DEEPER INTO THE VLYS
AND WILL BE SLOWLY TO CLEAR. LOOKS FOR COOLER TEMPS MON, TUE AND
THU WITH A LITTLE BIT OF WARMING ON WED AND THE RIDGE INITIALLY
PUSHES IN.
AVIATION
13/1130Z.
AT 0820Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2300 FEET DEEP, WITH AN
INVERSION TOP AT 3400 FT AND A TEMPERATURE OF 22 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DESERT SITES (KPMD AND KWJF).
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND CIG HGT BY +/- 200 FT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF NO
SCT CONDS FROM AROUND 19Z FRI TO 02Z SAT. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST
WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTION ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE MAY VARY BY +/- 2 HOURS.
MARINE
13/311 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A
40% CHANCE OF A GALE WARNING BEING ISSUED (PZZ670) FOR THE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON
ISSUANCE, BUT AT LEAST LOCALIZED GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION (NEAR BUOY 46028) APPEARS POSSIBLE TO LIKELY
(50-60% CHANCE). THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF GALES AGAIN ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE FOCUSED MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, SCA LEVEL NW
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, AND THESE WINDS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT - AND POSSIBLY INTO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS OF PZZ645 FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS ON FRIDAY - WITH
INCREASING CHANCES EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BETTER CHANCES
SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCA GUSTS TO REACH
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CHANNEL. FOR PZZ655, CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT FOR A LOW CHANCE (20%
CHANCE) OF LOCALIZED SCA GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE AROUND ANACAPA
ISLAND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ZONES
376>378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...30
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
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