924
FXUS66 KLOX 140043
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
543 PM PDT FRI JUN 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
13/210 PM.
INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE EACH DAY. THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE
COOLING EFFECTS OF THE MARINE LAYER. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
13/152 PM.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS WEST
FROM AZ. THIS WILL HAVE THE USUAL ASSORTMENT OF IMPACTS, NAMELY
WARMER TEMPERATURES (MOSTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST), AND A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER (BETWEEN 800-1200 FEET). HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE WARMEST
COASTAL VALLEYS, WITH A 50-60% CHANCE OF REACHING 97-99. THESE
NUMBERS WOULD LIKELY BE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT CAN'T
RULE THAT OUT COMPLETELY. CLOSER TO THE COAST, INCLUDING DOWNTOWN
LA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S. BREEZY BUT SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL
SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INCREASING NORTHERLY GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT THAT WILL GENERATE STRONGER SUNDOWNER WINDS INTO EARLY
MONDAY WITH WINDS GUSTING 45 TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
CANYONS AND PASSES.
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MONDAY THAT SHOULD CREATE A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES, BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
13/208 PM.
AFTER A DAY OF COOLING MONDAY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START
RAMPING BACK UP TUESDAY AND PEAKING WEDNESDAY AT SIMILAR OR
POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS COMING
SUNDAY. STILL MOSTLY 70S AND 80S FOR COASTAL AREAS WITHIN AROUND
10 MILES OF THE COAST. BUT AGAIN 90S FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL
VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY TOUCHING 100 IN THE WARMEST AREAS AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND INTERIOR SLO COUNTY.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL TURN COOLER AS A ANOTHER TROUGH
HITS THE WEST COAST. BY THURSDAY ONSHORE GRADIENTS TO THE EAST ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 10MB AND GRADIENTS TO THE NORTH WILL TURN
STRONGLY POSITIVE (7MB SBA-BFL) PUTTING AN END TO THE SUNDOWNERS
AND LIKELY KEEPING MANY COASTAL AREAS UNDER A MARINE LAYER WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
14/0042Z.
AT 0005Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE INVERSION WAS BASED AT 1300 FEET.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23
DEGREES CELSIUS.
FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KPRB, KWJF AND KPMD.
FOR OTHER SITES, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAFS. THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBP 08Z-16Z. ELSEWHERE, TIMING
OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT
FORECASTS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
CIGS LOWERING TO IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT 08Z FORECAST
WITH A 30% CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS INSTEAD OF IFR. THERE IS A
20% CHANCE THAT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS DO NOT DEVELOP TONIGHT.
MARINE
13/1238 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS WITH SEAS HOVERING NEAR SCA LEVELS.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD GALE
FORCE WINDS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SCA LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY DURING THE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS, EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL (WITH A 30%
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT), BUT WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW
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