059
FXUS66 KLOX 140332
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
832 PM PDT FRI JUN 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
13/210 PM.
INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE EACH DAY. THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE
COOLING EFFECTS OF THE MARINE LAYER. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)
13/831 PM.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS WEST
FROM AZ. THIS WILL HAVE THE USUAL ASSORTMENT OF IMPACTS, NAMELY
WARMER TEMPERATURES (MOSTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST), AND A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER (BETWEEN 800-1500 FEET). HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE WARMEST
COASTAL VALLEYS, AND LOWER 100'S IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
THESE NUMBERS WOULD LIKELY BE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
CAN'T RULE THAT OUT COMPLETELY. CLOSER TO THE COAST, INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN LA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S. BREEZY BUT SUB-
ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY TONIGHT. SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP
SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN PEAK IN STRENGTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN GUSTS OF 35 TO 55 MPH WILL BE COMMON FROM
GAVIOTA TO SAN MARCOS PASS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED GUSTS OF
TO 60 MPH NEAR GAVIOTA/REFUGIO. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A CHANCE
OF WIND ADVISORIES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE SUNDOWNERS,
THEN LIKELY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THESE WARMER AND
DRIER SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED FIRE RISK TO
SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY, RESULTING IN
ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THESE AREAS
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MONDAY THAT SHOULD CREATE A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES, BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
13/208 PM.
AFTER A DAY OF COOLING MONDAY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START
RAMPING BACK UP TUESDAY AND PEAKING WEDNESDAY AT SIMILAR OR
POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS COMING
SUNDAY. STILL MOSTLY 70S AND 80S FOR COASTAL AREAS WITHIN AROUND
10 MILES OF THE COAST. BUT AGAIN 90S FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL
VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY TOUCHING 100 IN THE WARMEST AREAS AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND INTERIOR SLO COUNTY.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL TURN COOLER AS A ANOTHER TROUGH
HITS THE WEST COAST. BY THURSDAY ONSHORE GRADIENTS TO THE EAST ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 10MB AND GRADIENTS TO THE NORTH WILL TURN
STRONGLY POSITIVE (7MB SBA-BFL) PUTTING AN END TO THE SUNDOWNERS
AND LIKELY KEEPING MANY COASTAL AREAS UNDER A MARINE LAYER WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
14/0042Z.
AT 0005Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE INVERSION WAS BASED AT 1300 FEET.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23
DEGREES CELSIUS.
FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KPRB, KWJF AND KPMD.
FOR OTHER SITES, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAFS. THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBP 08Z-16Z. ELSEWHERE, TIMING
OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT
FORECASTS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
CIGS LOWERING TO IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS COULD BE +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT 08Z FORECAST
WITH A 30% CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS INSTEAD OF IFR. THERE IS A
20% CHANCE THAT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS DO NOT DEVELOP TONIGHT.
MARINE
13/652 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS WITH SEAS HOVERING NEAR SCA LEVELS. ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD GALE
FORCE WINDS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED,
MAINLY DURING THE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH LIGHTER
WINDS DURING EACH LATE NIGHT TO MORNING PERIOD. THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING
BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SCA
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A 60-80%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL (WITH A 30% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT), BUT WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...RAT/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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