964
FXUS66 KLOX 142030
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
14/218 AM.
INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE MARINE
LAYER. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THROUGH
THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
14/129 PM.
OVERALL, 12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY THEN GET FLATTENED BY A TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE WEST COAST MONDAY/TUESDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE,
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST TO THE EAST, BUT THERE WILL BE
INCREASING NORTHERLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS.
FORECAST-WISE, MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE WINDS,
MORE SPECIFICALLY NORTHERLY WINDS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
INCREASING NORTHERLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE USUAL
SPOTS (SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND I-5 CORRIDOR). BASED ON HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS AND ENSEMBLES, ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS LOOKS LIKELY
ACROSS THE WESTERN SANTA YNEZ RANGE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, THE ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHERLY
WINDS LOOK TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN SANTA YNEZ RANGE (MONTECITO
AREA) AS WELL AS THE I-5 CORRIDOR. SO, WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES
FOR THE WESTERN SANTA YNEZ RANGE TONIGHT WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF ADVISORIES BEING NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. OTHER
THAN THE NORTHERLY WINDS, THE MODERATE ONSHORE GRADIENTS TO THE
EAST WILL GENERATE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS FOR CLOUDS, THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE.
THE INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT ANY STRATUS/FOG ACROSS
SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, STRATUS/FOG WILL
STILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
WITH LIMITED INLAND PENETRATION TO THE COASTAL VALLEYS AS THE
INVERSION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE SHALLOW IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
FINALLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS THINKING. AT THIS TIME, SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH VALLEYS IN THE 90S AND LOW 100S ACROSS
THE DESERTS. ALTHOUGH WELL ABOVE NORMAL, DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
HEAT ISSUES REQUIRING ANY SORT OF ADVISORY ON SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL BE MIXED. HOWEVER, MOST AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
14/129 PM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS, RIDGE WILL NUDGE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY THEN WILL BE FLATTENED/PUSHED EASTWARD AS A TROUGH ROLLS
ACROSS THE WEST COAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE,
TYPICAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MODERATE ONSHORE GRADIENTS TO
THE EAST AND WEAK NORTHERLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS.
FORECAST-WISE, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED
AS RIDGE POPS UP OVER THE AREA AND MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS
LIMITED. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, A COOLING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH ROLLING ACROSS THE WEST COAST, LOWERING
THICKNESSES AND H5 HEIGHTS. AS FOR THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS
COVERAGE, WILL EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
NIGHT-TO-NIGHT, BUT LINGERING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIMIT STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY COAST. AS FOR WINDS,
TYPICAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS.
AVIATION
14/1823Z.
AT 1537Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE INVERSION WAS BASED AT 2100 FEET.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 5400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21
C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPRB, KWJF AND KPMD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KSBP AND KSMX. THERE IS A 40% AND 20% CHANCE
VFR CONDS PREVAIL, RESPECTIVELY. OTHERWISE, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
FOR VLIFR CONDS. ARRIVAL TIME OF CIGS MAY BE OFF BY 2 HOURS.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KBUR AND KVNY. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE
FOR LIFR CONDS AT KBUR AND KVNY TONIGHT. ARRIVAL TIME OF CIGS MAY
BE OFF BY 2 HOURS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. CLEARING OF CIGS THIS
MORNING MAY BE OFF BY 90 MINUTES. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR VFR
CONDS TO PREVAIL AT KSBA AFTER CIGS CLEAR THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
10% CHANCE FOR VLIFR CONDS AT KOXR AND KCMA TONIGHT. FLIGHT CAT
CHANGES TONIGHT MAY BE OFF BY 2 HOURS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS COULD BE
AS EARLY AS 04Z OR AS LATE AS 08Z. THERE IS A 20% FOR CIGS OF
OVC007-009 UPON ARRIVAL TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND
COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE FOR OVC002-004
CIGS AND VSBYS 1-2SM. ARRIVAL OF CIGS COULD BE OFF 2 HOURS.
MARINE
14/119 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND INNER WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LULLS IN WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
ARE LIKELY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO APPROACH 10
FEET AT TIMES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, POTENTIALLY EXPANDING TO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CHANNEL MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. THERE IS A ALSO A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CHANNEL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH NEXT WEEK FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. HOWEVER, LOCAL SCA
WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY OCCUR IN TYPICAL WINDY SPOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
BEACHES
14/321 AM.
A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF CONDITIONS UP
TO 5-6 FEET ALONG SOUTH-FACING PORTIONS OF THE LA/VTA COASTLINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK FOR HAZARDOUS RIP
CURRENTS - THUS BE SURE TO SWIM NEAR AN OCCUPIED LIFEGUARD TOWER.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONES 349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR ZONES 354-362-366-367. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
BEACHES...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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