493
FXUS66 KLOX 151005
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
305 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
14/1156 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAKE TODAY THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE NEXT 7. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE
COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR. A COOLING TREND SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
15/257 AM.
QUITE THE WARM DAY ON TAP TODAY. 589 DAM HGTS ARE OVER THE AREA
STEMMING FROM A 594 DAM UPPER HIGH OVER NM. 1 TO 2 MB OFFSHORE
TRENDS HAVE BROUGHT ONLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND A
COUPLE MB OF ACTUAL OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. THE MARINE
LAYER HAS BEEN SQUISHED TO BELOW 1000 FT AND THIS ALONG WITH THE
WEAKER SFC GRADS HAS RESULTED IN MINIMAL CLOUD COVERAGE. THE HGTS,
WEAK GRADS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL MAKE TODAY THE WARMEST OF
THE NEXT 7. MOST AREAS WILL WARM 2 TO 4 DEGREES (THE CENTRAL COAST
MAY COOL A DEGREE OR TWO WITH A STRONGER SEA BREEZE) BUT THE VLYS
WHICH WILL NOT HAVE ANY MARINE INFLUENCE WILL WARM 6 TO 8
DEGREES. THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL SEE 12 TO 15 DEGREES OF WARMING
AS DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THESE MAX
TEMPS ARE ALMOST ALL ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE CENTRAL COAST THE ONLY
EXCEPTION. THE LA/VTA CSTS WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO MID
80S WITH THE VLYS ENDING UP IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WILL SEE UNUSUAL MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE COOL SPOT WILL BE THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE MOST HIGHS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. THE FAR INTERIOR AND LOWER MTN
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS FROM 95 TO 105 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
WHILE JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE WARM ENOUGH TO CREATE
HEALTH HEAT HAZARDS AND PEOPLE SHOULD PREPARE FOR A HOT DAY.
LOOK FOR ANOTHER WINDY EVENING ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST ESP THE
WESTERN PORTION AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND ADVISORIES IS VERY
LIKELY.
THERE WILL BE ONSHORE TRENDS AND LOWERING HGTS MONDAY AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE LOW CLOUD COVERAGE ESP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST AND THE LA SOUTH COAST. A COOLING AIRMASS AND AN
EARLIER SEA BREEZE WILL TEAM UP TO LOWER MAX TEMPS BY 3 TO 6
DEGREES. EVEN WITH THIS COOLING, MOST MAX TEMPS SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
THE STRONGEST NORTH PUSH WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND WIND
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST AS WELL
AS THE I-5 CORRIDOR.
WEAK TROFFING MOVES OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE IT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER THAT MUCH. MARINE LAYER STRATUS
COVERAGE WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY'S PATTERN. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT
CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE SBA SOUTH COAST
WHERE THE LACK OF NORTH FLOW WILL RESULT IN 8 TO 12 DEGREES OF
COOLING.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
15/1206 AM.
NOT MUCH EXCITEMENT IN THE XTND PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A LITTLE
POP UP RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THREE DAYS OF WEAK
TROFFING. 592 DAM HGTS WEDNESDAY WILL FALL TO 586 DAM BY SATURDAY.
AT THE SFC LOOK FOR INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST PEAKING IN
THE AFTERNOONS BETWEEN 7 AND 9 MB. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST IN THE S TO N DIRECTION.
LOOK FOR A TYPICAL JUNE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUD PATTERN
TO DEVELOP COVERING THE CSTS AND MOST VLYS. THERE WILL BE SLOW
CLEARING ACROSS THE VLYS AND ESP THE BEACHES AND LIKELY NO
CLEARING AT SEVERAL WEST FACING BEACHES.
HIGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
CSTL HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND VLYS HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER
90S. BY SATURDAY MOST MAX TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES BLO NORMAL
WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE COASTAL SXNS AND MOSTLY LOWER
AND MID 80 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VLYS.
THE STRONG ONSHORE PUSH TO THE EAST WILL BRING GUSTY AFTERNOON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS ESP THE ANTELOPE VLY.
AVIATION
15/0534Z.
AT 0457Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 900 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AT 3100 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 28 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DESERT TERMINALS (KPMD, KWJF). MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN VALLEY TERMINALS. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
COASTAL TERMINALS.
FOR COASTAL SITES, TIMING OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS COULD BE OFF
+/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT CAT MINIMUMS OFF BY ONE OR TWO. THERE IS A
40% CHANCE VLIFR/LIFR CIGS ARRIVE AT KSBP THROUGH 15Z SUN. SIMILAR
CHANCES THAT CIGS DO NOT MATERIALIZE AT KSBA THROUGH 15Z SUN.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF
CIGS COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. LIKELY A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS
006-012. CIGS COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS 09Z SUN (30% CHANCE).
NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. LOW CHANCE (10%) CIGS
RETURN FROM 08Z TO 16Z SUN. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
15/225 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND INNER WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LULLS IN WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
ARE LIKELY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOCALIZED
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE ACROSS THE
WATERS AROUND POINT CONCEPTION AND THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL
ALSO APPROACH 10 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A LOW-TO-MODERATE CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL
WINDS REACH EASTERN PORTIONS ON SUNDAY. CATEGORICALLY SIMILAR ODDS
FOR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CHANNEL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS GENERALLY
APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH NEXT WEEK FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. HOWEVER,
LOCALIZED SCA WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND ANACAPA ISLAND AND
NEARSHORE MALIBU DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS ON MONDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 354-362-366-367. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...HALL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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