493  
FXUS66 KLOX 151005  
AFDLOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA  
305 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
14/1156 PM.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAKE TODAY THE WARMEST DAY OF  
THE NEXT 7. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE  
COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY  
WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS  
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5  
CORRIDOR. A COOLING TREND SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)  
15/257 AM.  
 
QUITE THE WARM DAY ON TAP TODAY. 589 DAM HGTS ARE OVER THE AREA  
STEMMING FROM A 594 DAM UPPER HIGH OVER NM. 1 TO 2 MB OFFSHORE  
TRENDS HAVE BROUGHT ONLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND A  
COUPLE MB OF ACTUAL OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. THE MARINE  
LAYER HAS BEEN SQUISHED TO BELOW 1000 FT AND THIS ALONG WITH THE  
WEAKER SFC GRADS HAS RESULTED IN MINIMAL CLOUD COVERAGE. THE HGTS,  
WEAK GRADS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL MAKE TODAY THE WARMEST OF  
THE NEXT 7. MOST AREAS WILL WARM 2 TO 4 DEGREES (THE CENTRAL COAST  
MAY COOL A DEGREE OR TWO WITH A STRONGER SEA BREEZE) BUT THE VLYS  
WHICH WILL NOT HAVE ANY MARINE INFLUENCE WILL WARM 6 TO 8  
DEGREES. THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL SEE 12 TO 15 DEGREES OF WARMING  
AS DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THESE MAX  
TEMPS ARE ALMOST ALL ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE CENTRAL COAST THE ONLY  
EXCEPTION. THE LA/VTA CSTS WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO MID  
80S WITH THE VLYS ENDING UP IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. THE SBA  
SOUTH COAST WILL SEE UNUSUAL MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.  
THE COOL SPOT WILL BE THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE MOST HIGHS WILL BE A  
FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. THE FAR INTERIOR AND LOWER MTN  
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS FROM 95 TO 105 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS  
WHILE JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE WARM ENOUGH TO CREATE  
HEALTH HEAT HAZARDS AND PEOPLE SHOULD PREPARE FOR A HOT DAY.  
 
LOOK FOR ANOTHER WINDY EVENING ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST ESP THE  
WESTERN PORTION AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND ADVISORIES IS VERY  
LIKELY.  
 
THERE WILL BE ONSHORE TRENDS AND LOWERING HGTS MONDAY AND THIS  
WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE LOW CLOUD COVERAGE ESP ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL COAST AND THE LA SOUTH COAST. A COOLING AIRMASS AND AN  
EARLIER SEA BREEZE WILL TEAM UP TO LOWER MAX TEMPS BY 3 TO 6  
DEGREES. EVEN WITH THIS COOLING, MOST MAX TEMPS SOUTH OF PT  
CONCEPTION WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
THE STRONGEST NORTH PUSH WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND WIND  
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST AS WELL  
AS THE I-5 CORRIDOR.  
 
WEAK TROFFING MOVES OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. IT DOES NOT LOOK  
LIKE IT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER THAT MUCH. MARINE LAYER STRATUS  
COVERAGE WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY'S PATTERN. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT  
CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE SBA SOUTH COAST  
WHERE THE LACK OF NORTH FLOW WILL RESULT IN 8 TO 12 DEGREES OF  
COOLING.  
   
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)  
15/1206 AM.  
 
NOT MUCH EXCITEMENT IN THE XTND PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A LITTLE  
POP UP RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THREE DAYS OF WEAK  
TROFFING. 592 DAM HGTS WEDNESDAY WILL FALL TO 586 DAM BY SATURDAY.  
AT THE SFC LOOK FOR INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST PEAKING IN  
THE AFTERNOONS BETWEEN 7 AND 9 MB. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW  
WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST IN THE S TO N DIRECTION.  
 
LOOK FOR A TYPICAL JUNE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUD PATTERN  
TO DEVELOP COVERING THE CSTS AND MOST VLYS. THERE WILL BE SLOW  
CLEARING ACROSS THE VLYS AND ESP THE BEACHES AND LIKELY NO  
CLEARING AT SEVERAL WEST FACING BEACHES.  
 
HIGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH  
CSTL HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND VLYS HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER  
90S. BY SATURDAY MOST MAX TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES BLO NORMAL  
WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE COASTAL SXNS AND MOSTLY LOWER  
AND MID 80 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VLYS.  
 
THE STRONG ONSHORE PUSH TO THE EAST WILL BRING GUSTY AFTERNOON  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS ESP THE ANTELOPE VLY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
15/0534Z.  
 
AT 0457Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 900 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF THE  
INVERSION WAS AT 3100 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 28 C.  
 
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DESERT TERMINALS (KPMD, KWJF). MODERATE  
CONFIDENCE IN VALLEY TERMINALS. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN  
COASTAL TERMINALS.  
 
FOR COASTAL SITES, TIMING OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS COULD BE OFF  
+/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT CAT MINIMUMS OFF BY ONE OR TWO. THERE IS A  
40% CHANCE VLIFR/LIFR CIGS ARRIVE AT KSBP THROUGH 15Z SUN. SIMILAR  
CHANCES THAT CIGS DO NOT MATERIALIZE AT KSBA THROUGH 15Z SUN.  
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF  
CIGS COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. LIKELY A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS  
006-012. CIGS COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS 09Z SUN (30% CHANCE).  
NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.  
 
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. LOW CHANCE (10%) CIGS  
RETURN FROM 08Z TO 16Z SUN. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
15/225 AM.  
 
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST  
WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND INNER WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL  
COAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LULLS IN WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST  
ARE LIKELY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOCALIZED  
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE ACROSS THE  
WATERS AROUND POINT CONCEPTION AND THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS.  
 
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD  
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL  
ALSO APPROACH 10 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  
 
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS  
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE  
NIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A LOW-TO-MODERATE CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL  
WINDS REACH EASTERN PORTIONS ON SUNDAY. CATEGORICALLY SIMILAR ODDS  
FOR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CHANNEL  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS GENERALLY  
APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH NEXT WEEK FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. HOWEVER,  
LOCALIZED SCA WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND ANACAPA ISLAND AND  
NEARSHORE MALIBU DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS ON MONDAY.  
 
 
   
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR  
ZONES 354-362-366-367. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE  
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3  
AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR  
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE  
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
 
 
 
 
 
PUBLIC...RORKE  
AVIATION...BLACK  
MARINE...BLACK/CILIBERTI  
SYNOPSIS...HALL  
 
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES  
 
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX  
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