981
FXUS66 KLOX 151735
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1035 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2025
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
SYNOPSIS
15/802 AM.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAKE TODAY THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE NEXT 7. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE
COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR. A COOLING TREND SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
15/844 AM.
***UPDATE***
ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY, AND WHILE NO HEAT HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED, PEOPLE SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE INCREASED RISKS OF HEAT
ILLNESS TODAY, ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING FATHER'S DAY PLANS.
MAKE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF HYDRATING FLUIDS AND SEEK SHADE WHEN
POSSIBLE, IF OUTDOORS.
THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THIS MORNING WERE LIMITED TO A FEW
LOCATIONS, PUSHING INTO SANTA MARIA AND LOMPOC, AND MAINLY ACROSS
SE LOS ANGELES INLAND COAST. EXPECTING THE REMAINDER OF THESE
CLOUDS TO BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY, COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN OFFSHORE
GRADIENT TRENDS FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING
TODAY. THE LA/VTA COASTS WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO MID
80S WITH THE VALLEYS ENDING UP IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WILL SEE UNUSUAL MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE COOL SPOT WILL BE THE CENTRAL COAST, WHERE MOST HIGHS WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. THE FAR INTERIOR AND LOWER
MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS FROM 95 TO 105 DEGREES. THESE
TEMPS, WHILE JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA, ARE WARM ENOUGH TO
CREATE HEAT-RELATED HEALTH HAZARDS, AND PEOPLE SHOULD PREPARE FOR
A HOT DAY.
WILL BE LOOKING AT ADDING WIND ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN SHAPE AND CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WERE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
QUITE THE WARM DAY ON TAP TODAY. 589 DAM HGTS ARE OVER THE AREA
STEMMING FROM A 594 DAM UPPER HIGH OVER NM. 1 TO 2 MB OFFSHORE
TRENDS HAVE BROUGHT ONLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND A
COUPLE MB OF ACTUAL OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. THE MARINE
LAYER HAS BEEN SQUISHED TO BELOW 1000 FT AND THIS ALONG WITH THE
WEAKER SFC GRADS HAS RESULTED IN MINIMAL CLOUD COVERAGE. THE HGTS,
WEAK GRADS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL MAKE TODAY THE WARMEST OF
THE NEXT 7. MOST AREAS WILL WARM 2 TO 4 DEGREES (THE CENTRAL COAST
MAY COOL A DEGREE OR TWO WITH A STRONGER SEA BREEZE) BUT THE VLYS
WHICH WILL NOT HAVE ANY MARINE INFLUENCE WILL WARM 6 TO 8
DEGREES. THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL SEE 12 TO 15 DEGREES OF WARMING
AS DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THESE MAX
TEMPS ARE ALMOST ALL ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE CENTRAL COAST THE ONLY
EXCEPTION.
LOOK FOR ANOTHER WINDY EVENING ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST ESP THE
WESTERN PORTION AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND ADVISORIES IS VERY
LIKELY.
THERE WILL BE ONSHORE TRENDS AND LOWERING HGTS MONDAY AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE LOW CLOUD COVERAGE ESP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST AND THE LA SOUTH COAST. A COOLING AIRMASS AND AN
EARLIER SEA BREEZE WILL TEAM UP TO LOWER MAX TEMPS BY 3 TO 6
DEGREES. EVEN WITH THIS COOLING, MOST MAX TEMPS SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
THE STRONGEST NORTH PUSH WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND WIND
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST AS WELL
AS THE I-5 CORRIDOR.
WEAK TROFFING MOVES OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE IT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER THAT MUCH. MARINE LAYER STRATUS
COVERAGE WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY'S PATTERN. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT
CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE SBA SOUTH COAST
WHERE THE LACK OF NORTH FLOW WILL RESULT IN 8 TO 12 DEGREES OF
COOLING.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
15/1206 AM.
NOT MUCH EXCITEMENT IN THE XTND PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A LITTLE
POP UP RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THREE DAYS OF WEAK
TROFFING. 592 DAM HGTS WEDNESDAY WILL FALL TO 586 DAM BY SATURDAY.
AT THE SFC LOOK FOR INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST PEAKING IN
THE AFTERNOONS BETWEEN 7 AND 9 MB. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST IN THE S TO N DIRECTION.
LOOK FOR A TYPICAL JUNE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUD PATTERN
TO DEVELOP COVERING THE CSTS AND MOST VLYS. THERE WILL BE SLOW
CLEARING ACROSS THE VLYS AND ESP THE BEACHES AND LIKELY NO
CLEARING AT SEVERAL WEST FACING BEACHES.
HIGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
CSTL HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND VLYS HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER
90S. BY SATURDAY MOST MAX TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES BLO NORMAL
WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE COASTAL SXNS AND MOSTLY LOWER
AND MID 80 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VLYS.
THE STRONG ONSHORE PUSH TO THE EAST WILL BRING GUSTY AFTERNOON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS ESP THE ANTELOPE VLY.
AVIATION
15/1734Z.
AT 1652Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1100 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2600 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, KVNY,
KPMD, AND KWJF.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF FOR KSBP. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE FOR VFR
CONDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KSMX, KSMO, KLAX, AND KLGB. THERE
IS A 30% CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AT KSMO BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z. THERE IS
A 30% CHANCE KLAX REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR VFR
CONDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, OTHERWISE ARRIVAL OF CIGS MAY
BE AS EARLY AS 10Z. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE AN EAST WIND COMPONENT
REACH 8 KTS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
15/837 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND INNER WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. LULLS IN WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
ARE LIKELY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTER WATERS WHERE A
GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT. SEAS WILL ALSO APPROACH 10 FEET AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEK.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.
SCA LEVEL WINDS MAY REACH EASTERN PORTIONS EACH DAY, WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE TODAY AND MONDAY. LOCAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS CONFINED
TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CHANNEL MAY ALSO OCCUR.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
IN THE INNER WATERS OFF THE LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTY COASTS
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED WNW SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS MAY
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS NEAR MALIBU AND THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL TODAY AND MONDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 354-362-366-367. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE
645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE/LUND
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...HALL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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