467
FXUS66 KLOX 291557
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
857 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
28/211 PM.
DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT
COOL-DOWN IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTS AND SOME COASTAL VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
29/857 AM.
***UPDATE***
THE FORECAST IS WELL ON-TRACK, AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE STREAK OF UNEVENTFUL TYPICALLY JUNE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE 3 DAY SHORT TERM AND BEYOND.
CURRENTLY THE MARINE LAYER IS ABOUT 1000 FT DEEP THERE IS NO EDDY
SO LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP AND WILL NOT MAKE MUCH OF
PENETRATION INTO THE VLY. CLEARING WILL BE A LITTLE FASTER AND
COMPLETE TODAY AS WELL. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ACROSS THE LA/VTA VLYS AS WELL AS SOME OF THE INTERIOR
COASTAL SECTIONS.
THE ONSHORE PUSH WILL BE AT A MINIMUM TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE VLYS CLOUD FREE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD CLEARING. THE ONSHORE PUSH INCREASES
NOTICEABLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE STRONGER SEABREEZE WILL BRING
SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE VTA AND LA VLYS. MANY AREAS OF
LA COUNTY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT SLO/SBA/VTA
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY ALL COME IN WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS (5 TO 10
DEGREES BLO NORMAL IN THE CASE OF THE CENTRAL COAST).
ON TUESDAY A HIGH HGT (580 DAM) UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING
HARMLESSLY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE EAST
AND WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT MORE CYCLONIC. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
TO THE EAST WILL COMBINE WITH THE LIFT FORM THE UPPER LEVELS TO
BRING THE LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE VLYS AND ALSO DELAY CLEARING.
AFTER A TWO DAY REPRIEVE THE WEST COASTS OF SBA/VTA COUNTIES WILL
SEE LIMITED OR NO CLEARING. THE INCREASED ONSHORE PUSH TO THE EAST
WILL BRING GUSTY (BUT SUB ADVISORY LEVEL) WINDS TO THE WESTERN
ANTELOPE VLY.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
29/1223 AM.
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE XTND PERIOD.
THE HIGH HGT UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSVERSE THE STATE ON WED
AND THU. A BROAD TROFFING PATTERN WILL SET UP BEHIND IT FOR FRI
AND SAT. H5 HGTS WILL RISE FROM 582 DAM TO ~586 DAM FROM WED TO
SAT. AT THE SFC THE ONSHORE PUSH TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE ITS
DIURNAL CYCLE VARYING FROM ABOUT 4 MB IN THE MORNING TO 8 MB IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE PUSH TO THE NORTH WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN (VARYING FROM ABOUT 2 MB TO 5 OR 6 MB) ON WED AND THU,
BUT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ON FRI AND SAT EVEN GOING WEAKLY
OFFSHORE IN THE MORNINGS.
THE LOW CLOUD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CLOUDS
COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST AND THE CLEARING THE SLOWEST (AND NON
EXISTENT ACROSS THE WEST FACING BEACHES OF VTA/SBA COUNTIES) ON
WED AND THU WITH THE STRONGEST ONSHORE PUSH AND GREATEST CYCLONIC
TURNING ALOFT. LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN THE LOW CLOUDS FOR THE
LA/VTA VLYS AS WELL AS THE SBA SOUTH COAST ON FRI AND SAT WITH
SLIGHTLY FASTER/BETTER CLEARING.
MAX TEMPS WILL NOT EXHIBIT MUCH DAY TO DAY VARIANCE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR THE CSTS/VLYS FRI AND SAT
DUE TO THE LESSER MARINE LAYER. LOOK FOR MOSTLY 70S ACROSS THE
CSTS (SOME 60S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST), 80S FOR MOST OF THE VLYS
AND 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATION MTNS AND FAR INTERIOR. THESE
MAX TEMPS ARE 3 TO 6 LOCALLY 8 DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
WITH CONTINUED STRONG AFTERNOON ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS, GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER, SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.
AVIATION
29/1053Z.
AT 0718Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1000 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1500 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTY SW WINDS
AT AIRFIELDS: KPRB, KWJF AND KPMD.
TIMING OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT
CAT MINIMUMS OFF BY ONE.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
LIFR CIGS 003-004 THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY. TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT CHANGES
MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARRIVE AFTER 06Z MON. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE ONSHORE FLOW.
MARINE
29/659 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AND MUCH QUIETER THAN
USUAL. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF
BOTH SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS AND REMAIN MUCH QUIETER THAN USUAL.
THERE IS A 25% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL SEAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH MONDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...RORKE/COHEN
AVIATION...DMB
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...COHEN
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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