742
FXUS66 KLOX 301001
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
301 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
29/1129 PM.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VALLEYS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE FIRST HEATWAVE OF THE
SUMMER COULD ARRIVE A WEEK FROM WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
30/242 AM.
NOT MUCH GOING ON WEATHER WISE AS WE MOVE OUT OF JUNE AND INTO
JULY. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN WILL BE AT A MINIMUM TODAY
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VLY PENETRATION DUE TO ONSHORE PUSH
BEING THE WEAKEST IT HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. CLEARING
SHOULD BE COMPLETE TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM YDY,
PERHAPS A LITTLE COOLER IN THE LA VLYS AS THE ONSHORE FLOW IS FCST
TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CSTS WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES TO THE
LOWER 80S FOR INLAND COASTAL AREAS. THE VLYS WILL END UP A FEW
DEGREES OVER NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S WITH A FEW MID 90S READINGS OVER THE WARMEST AREAS.
ON TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE WEAK ONSHORE TRENDS ALONG WITH FALLING
HGTS AND INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM AN APPROACHING HIGH
HGT UPPER LOW. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN LOW CLOUD COVERAGE AND DURATION ALONG WITH A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
SRN CA. HGTS FALL TO 580 DAM WITH THE LOW MOVING OVERHEAD. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT FIRMLY INTO
THE VLYS. CLEARING WILL BE SLOW AND A FEW BEACHES WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE COOL MARINE AIR
SPILLING INTO THE VLYS, MAX TEMPS THERE WILL FALL 3 TO 6 DEGREES.
MOST OF THE FOUR COUNTY FORECAST AREA'S MAX TEMPS WILL END UP 3
TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
30/1218 AM.
LOOKING FOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
FOR THE XTND (THU-SUN) FCST. AT THE UPPER LEVELS THERE WILL BE
SOME SORT OF WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WITH HGTS AROUND 588 DAM RISING TO
590 DAM DURING THE WEEKEND. THESE HGTS ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
SEASONAL NORMALS. AT THE SFC THERE WILL BE A MDT TO STRONG ONSHORE
PUSH TO THE EAST. THE ONSHORE PUSH TO THE NORTH WILL BE WEAKER AND
WILL TREND WEAKER EACH DAY. IT MAY, IN FACT, GO BRIEFLY OFFSHORE
IN THE MORNING ON SAT AND SUN.
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, BUT
THE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH SOME OVER THE WEEKEND (ESP ACROSS THE
VLYS) AS THE HGTS INCREASE AND THE NORTH PUSH WEAKENS.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON BOTH THU AND SUN. A
GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL START FRIDAY FOR THE CSTS/VLYS AND WILL
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE WARMING MOST AREAS
WILL EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE 4 DAY PERIOD.
THE STRONG ONSHORE PUSH TO THE EAST WILL GENERATE LOCAL GUSTS OF
30-45 MPH OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS WITH
ONLY ISOLATED 45-50 MPH GUSTS IN WINDIEST LOCATIONS.
ENSEMBLE BASED LONG RANGE FORECASTS DO SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL SHIFT
IN THE WEATHER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (JULY 8TH OR 9TH).
A VERY WARM UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND TRIGGER THE
FIRST HEATWAVE OF THE SUMMER. THE MDLS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY
HINTING AT THE FIRST MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSH OF THE SEASON AS WELL
WHICH WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO THE AREA
IF IT DEVELOPS. PLEASE STAY TUNED AS WE MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS.
AVIATION
30/0523Z.
AT 0444Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 700 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 28 CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTY SW WINDS
AT AIRFIELDS: KPRB, KWJF AND KPMD.
CEILING CHANCES AT THE OTHER SITES: KSBP (100%) KSMX (100%) KSBA
(80%) KOXR (90%) KCMA (90%) KSMO (100%) KLAX (100%) KLGB (30%)
KBUR (20%) KVNY (10%). MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SIMILAR CEILING
HEIGHTS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
HIGH RISK (LIFR) CONDS: KSBP, KSMX, KSBA, KOXR, & KCMA.
MODERATE RISK (LIFR) CONDS: KSMO & KLAX.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF
CIGS MAY BE OFF BY 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE OF BRIEF LIFR
CIGS - 0VC003 THROUGH 15Z MON. HIGH CONFIDENCE: NO SIGNIFICANT
WIND ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
BKN003-006 CIGS FROM 10Z TO 15Z MON. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE ONSHORE FLOW.
MARINE
30/1205 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY, CONDITIONS ARE MUCH QUIETER
THAN USUAL WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF SCA
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. THEN, INCREASING TO LIKELY CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK - WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE
WINDS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SCA LEVELS DURING THIS TIME,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PT. CONCEPTION AND 50 NM FROM THE SHORELINE.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FROM NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THERE IS A
30-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN CURRENT FORECAST. LOCAL SCA WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEARSHORE
MAILBU AND ACROSS THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL MON AND TUE EVENING. WIND
GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA
CHANNEL MON AND TUE EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR SCA WINDS APPEAR TO
BE ON FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE,
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH MONDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...30
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