436
FXUS66 KLOX 010341
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
841 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
30/1045 AM.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE COASTS AND SOME VALLEYS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (MON-THU)
30/839 PM.
***UPDATE***
TEMPERATURES VARIED DRAMATICALLY BETWEEN THE COASTS AND THE
INTERIOR, DUE TO A SOLID BLANKET OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THAT
PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. CLOUDS WERE
MORE SPARSE FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES, WHERE HIGHS REACHED THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S, IN CONTRAST WITH THE COOLER 50S FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXPECTING
MORE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THAT EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE VALLEYS AND LINGER
LONGER EACH DAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK,
BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE ONSHORE WINDS OVER INTERIOR SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY AREA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW RISE IN THE
MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE
COASTAL VALLEYS AND EVENTUALLY BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS THERE AS
WELL, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, A LOT MORE
OF THE SAME WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH CLOUDS CLEARING TO THE COAST
EACH AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE
USUAL GUSTY WINDS INTO THE ANTELOPE VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON BUT
MOSTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
30/1055 AM.
REALLY JUST MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR DAY TO DAY AND LOW CLOUDS PUSHING IN TO
SOME OF THE VALLEYS EACH MORNING.
ENSEMBLE BASED LONG RANGE FORECASTS DO SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL SHIFT
IN THE WEATHER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (JULY 8TH OR 9TH).
A VERY WARM UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND TRIGGER THE
FIRST HEATWAVE OF THE SUMMER. THE MDLS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY
HINTING AT THE FIRST MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSH OF THE SEASON AS
WELL WHICH WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO THE
AREA IF IT DEVELOPS. PLEASE STAY TUNED AS WE MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPING SITUATION OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS.
AVIATION
01/0144Z.
AT 0014Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 600 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS WITH EVENING GUSTY SW WINDS AT
AIRFIELDS: KPRB, KWJF AND KPMD.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING AIRFIELDS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT CAT MINIMUMS BY 1.
THERE IS A 20% CHC OF IFR-LIFR CONDS AT KVNY 11Z-16Z TUE.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHC OF BKN004
CONDS OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
30/128 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH TUESDAY, CONDITIONS ARE MUCH QUIETER THAN
USUAL, WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF SCA WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY. THEN, INCREASING TO LIKELY CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK - WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SCA
LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
PT. CONCEPTION AND 50 NM FROM THE SHORELINE.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THERE IS A 30-50%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN CURRENT FORECAST. LOCAL SCA WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEARSHORE
MAILBU AND ACROSS THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL MON AND TUE EVENING. WIND
GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA
CHANNEL MON AND TUE EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR SCA WINDS APPEAR TO
BE ON FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE,
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH MONDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/MW
AVIATION...PHILLIPS
MARINE...BLACK/LUND
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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