608
FXUS66 KLOX 012121
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
221 PM PDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
30/1100 PM.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE COASTS AND SOME VALLEYS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
01/148 PM.
SMALL DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES AND NIGHT TO MORNING LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY FOR THE COASTS EXTENDING INTO SOME
COASTAL VALLEYS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S NEAR
THE COAST, 80S COASTAL VALLEYS AND 90S LOWER MOUNTAINS TO THE
INTERIOR. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS WITH NO SHOWERS EXPECTED. INTERIOR AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND BREEZY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WEAK SUNDOWNER WINDS LIKELY RETURNING TO
SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY BY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
01/148 PM.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS LIKELY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND NIGHT TO MORNING LOW
CLOUDS GRADUALLY RETREATING CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MODERATE TO HIGH HEAT IMPACTS POSSIBLE FROM THE COASTAL
VALLEYS TO INTERIOR BY TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT POSSIBLE FOR WARMER COASTAL VALLEYS TO
THE INTERIOR. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY PUSH INTO LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND
COULD INCREASE HEAT CONCERNS CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WELL AS
MONSOON MOISTURE TENDS TO DISRUPT THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE
MARINE LAYER. THERE IS A SMALL (10 PERCENT CHANCE) OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES BEGINNING TUESDAY. DRY LIGHTNING FIRE
STARTS, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCAL FLOODING ARE POTENTIAL MONSOONAL
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS.
AVIATION
01/1921Z.
AT 1114Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1300 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KWJF, AND KPMD.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KBUR AND KVNY WITH 10-20% PERCENT CHC
OF IFR CIGS 10Z-16Z WED.
PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING AIRFIELDS THROUGH 02Z. TIMING
OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND CIG HGT OFF
BY +/- 100 FT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 02Z DUE TO TIMING OF
RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS.
KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING COULD
ARRIVE ANYTIME BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AND CIGS COULD BE AS LOW AS
BKN005. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH 10-20% CHC OF BKN008 CONDS
10Z-16Z WED.
MARINE
01/153 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL
ISLANDS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK THROUGH TEH WEEKEND. THERE IS A 50-70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY, INCREASING TO A 60-80
PERCENT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY. THEN, SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW (10-20
PERCENT) CHANCE OF GALES ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT FOR THE
FAR NW PORTION OF THE OUTER WATERS, AND THEN FRIDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM
OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTH TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. A
MODERATE CHANCE EXISTS OF LULLS IN THE WIND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, WINDS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
THEN SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY, INCREASING TO 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE ON THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, THERE IS A MODERATE (30-50
PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL, NEAR POINT DUME, AND INTO THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL.
A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER DEPTH IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
PATCHY DENSE FOG THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH THIS MORNING.
BEACHES
01/1245 PM.
A LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH MARGINALLY HIGH HEIGHTS HAS A
MODERATE CHANCE OF PRODUCING STRONG RIP CURRENTS THURSDAY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT MAY BE
ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT ELEVATED SURF CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP
CURRENT ACTIVITY IN THE SURF ZONE, WITH MOST POWERFUL CURRENT
EXPECTED FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SATURDAY. IF PLANNING ON HEADING
TO THE BEACH OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, PLEASE CHECK WITH A
LIFEGUARD BEFORE ENTERING THE WATER. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR AN OCCUPIED
LIFEGUARD TOWER.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM
PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MUNROE
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...HALL/LUND
BEACHES...HALL
SYNOPSIS...30
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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