959
FXUS66 KLOX 020342
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
842 PM PDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
30/1100 PM.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE COASTS AND SOME VALLEYS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)
01/838 PM.
***UPDATE***
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TODAY, WITH MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS AFFECTING THE COASTS AND COASTAL VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WERE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR, SO HIGHS WERE
WARMED A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AS MARINE LAYER CLOUDS SHOULD
BE SIMILAR IN COVERAGE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS (GENERALLY 20 TO 35 MPH)DEVELOPED OVER THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY, THE I-5 CORRIDOR, AND INTERIOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY.
EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO REOCCUR EACH AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH SOME
OVERNIGHT BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AFFECTING INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. WILL
NEED TO LOOK INTO ADDING FOG TO THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY FOR
THURSDAY BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
STDAFDLOX
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
SMALL DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES AND NIGHT TO MORNING LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY FOR THE COASTS EXTENDING INTO SOME
COASTAL VALLEYS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S NEAR
THE COAST, 80S COASTAL VALLEYS AND 90S LOWER MOUNTAINS TO THE
INTERIOR. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS WITH NO SHOWERS EXPECTED. INTERIOR AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND BREEZY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WEAK SUNDOWNER WINDS LIKELY RETURNING TO
SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY BY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
01/148 PM.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS LIKELY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND NIGHT TO MORNING LOW
CLOUDS GRADUALLY RETREATING CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MODERATE TO HIGH HEAT IMPACTS POSSIBLE FROM THE COASTAL
VALLEYS TO INTERIOR BY TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT POSSIBLE FOR WARMER COASTAL VALLEYS TO
THE INTERIOR. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY PUSH INTO LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND
COULD INCREASE HEAT CONCERNS CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WELL AS
MONSOON MOISTURE TENDS TO DISRUPT THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE
MARINE LAYER. THERE IS A SMALL (10 PERCENT CHANCE) OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES BEGINNING TUESDAY. DRY LIGHTNING FIRE
STARTS, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCAL FLOODING ARE POTENTIAL MONSOONAL
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS.
AVIATION
01/2354Z.
AT 2324Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1100 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPRB, KWJF, AND KPMD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KBUR AND KVNY WITH 30% PERCENT CHC OF
LIFR TO IFR CIGS 08Z-17Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING AIRFIELDS THROUGH 02Z. TIMING OF
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT CATS MAY
BE OFF BY ONE CAT DURING PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING COULD
ARRIVE ANYTIME BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z AND CIGS COULD BE AS LOW AS
005. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH 30% CHC OF BKN002-008 CONDS
08Z-17Z WED.
MARINE
01/751 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. WINDS ARE
MARGINALLY AT SCA LEVELS CURRENTLY AND THERE WILL BE A LONG ENOUGH
LULL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO END THE SCA TONIGHT AND
START A NEW ONE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOCAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH BEST CHANCES AROUND
THE WESTERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (30-40% CHANCE).
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, WINDS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
THEN SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, THERE IS A MODERATE
(30-50%) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL (STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS), NEAR
POINT DUME, AND INTO THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL.
A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER DEPTH IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
PATCHY DENSE FOG THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH THIS MORNING.
BEACHES
01/1245 PM.
A LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH MARGINALLY HIGH HEIGHTS HAS A
MODERATE CHANCE OF PRODUCING STRONG RIP CURRENTS THURSDAY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT MAY BE
ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT ELEVATED SURF CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP
CURRENT ACTIVITY IN THE SURF ZONE, WITH MOST POWERFUL CURRENT
EXPECTED FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SATURDAY. IF PLANNING ON HEADING
TO THE BEACH OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, PLEASE CHECK WITH A
LIFEGUARD BEFORE ENTERING THE WATER. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR AN OCCUPIED
LIFEGUARD TOWER.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM
PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES 650-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/MUNROE
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LUND/LEWIS
BEACHES...HALL
SYNOPSIS...30
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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