736
FXUS66 KLOX 030215
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
715 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
02/121 PM.
NEAR NORMAL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR
THE COAST. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HEATWAVE OF THE
SUMMER IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)
02/121 PM.
SMALL DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES WITH NIGHT TO MORNING
LOW CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY FOR THE COASTS EXTENDING INTO
SOME COASTAL VALLEYS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
NEAR THE COAST, 80S COASTAL VALLEYS AND 90S LOWER MOUNTAINS TO THE
INTERIOR. INTERIOR AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND BREEZY WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WITH WEAK TO MODERATE (LOW END ADVISORY
LEVEL) SUNDOWNER WINDS LIKELY RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY BEGINNING FRIDAY.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
02/121 PM.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH NIGHT TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY RETREATING CLOSER TO THE COAST.
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ALL GUIDANCE HAS SOME FLAVOR OF A STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. MODERATE TO HIGH HEAT
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY FROM THE COASTAL VALLEYS TO INTERIOR AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AND LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
(100S) HEAT. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT OF THE HEAT CLOSER TO
THE COAST. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY PUSH INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AND COMBINED WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE TRENDS FROM THE
NORTH COULD INCREASE HEAT CONCERNS CLOSER TO THE COAST AS MONSOON
MOISTURE TENDS TO DISRUPT THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE MARINE LAYER.
HEATWAVES COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY HAVE SUPPORTED LARGE WILDLAND
FIRES IN THE PAST, SO INCREASED FIRE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL (10 PERCENT CHANCE) OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOCUSED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY FOR
LOS ANGELES/VENTURA COUNTIES, EXTENDING ACROSS THE REMAINING
INTERIOR AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. DRY LIGHTNING
FIRE STARTS, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POTENTIAL
MONSOON THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS.
A SLOW COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HOWEVER
CONTINUED HEAT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
AVIATION
03/0214Z.
AT 00Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1400 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AROUND 3500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KWJF, KPMD, AND KPRB.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. MINIMUM FLIGHT CAT MAY BE
OFF BY ONE AND FLIGHT CATEGORIES OFF BY 2 HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW LOW VIS WILL BE OVERNIGHT. KBUR AND KVNY: THERE IS A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT VFR CONDS PREVAIL.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT REMAINING BELOW 6 KTS BETWEEN 09Z AND
16Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR NO
LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.
MARINE
02/209 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND, WITH A
LULL POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE RAMPING BACK
UP. SCA WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOCAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH BEST CHANCES AROUND THE WESTERN CHANNEL
ISLANDS AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (30% CHANCE). SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FEET AT TIMES
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, THERE IS A MODERATE
(30-50%) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL (STRONGEST
WINDS FOCUSED IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS), NEAR POINT DUME, AND INTO
THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL.
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 650-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MUNROE
AVIATION...PHILLIPS
MARINE...LEWIS/LUND
SYNOPSIS...30
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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