636
FXUS66 KLOX 030717
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1217 AM PDT THU JUL 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
02/817 PM.
NEAR NORMAL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR
THE COAST. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HEATWAVE OF THE
SUMMER IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
02/844 PM.
***UPDATE***
THE SEASONAL PATTERN OF WARM INTERIOR AND COOL COASTS CONTINUES
TODAY, WITH WARMER VALLEY PUSHING TO THE LOWER 90S AND DESERTS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. TOMORROW WILL SEE SIMILAR VALUES,
WITH MORE LIMITED MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH
FAR INTO THE VALLEYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT.
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE FROM 580 TO ABOUT 585 DAM BY THURSDAY
MORNING, LEADING TO A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER AND BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR FOG.
A WILDFIRE NEAR THE SANTA BARBARA SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY BORDER
IS CREATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SMOKE FOR THE CUYAMA VALLEY,
AS WELL AS HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SMOKE AT UPPER LEVELS IS
CURRENTLY DRIFTING FAR SOUTH FROM ITS ORIGIN OVER SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF VENTURA COUNTY. SOME SMOKE WILL
ALSO LIKELY REACH PORTIONS OF LA COUNTY AS WELL. SMOKE WAS ADDED
TO THE FORECAST, ALONG WITH FOG. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY OVER
THE INTERIOR WERE ALSO WARMED TO BETTER REFLECT TODAY'S HIGHS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
SMALL DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES WITH NIGHT TO MORNING
LOW CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY FOR THE COASTS EXTENDING INTO
SOME COASTAL VALLEYS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
NEAR THE COAST, 80S COASTAL VALLEYS AND 90S LOWER MOUNTAINS TO THE
INTERIOR. INTERIOR AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND BREEZY WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WITH WEAK TO MODERATE (LOW END ADVISORY
LEVEL) SUNDOWNER WINDS LIKELY RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY BEGINNING FRIDAY.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
02/121 PM.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH NIGHT TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY RETREATING CLOSER TO THE COAST.
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ALL GUIDANCE HAS SOME FLAVOR OF A STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. MODERATE TO HIGH HEAT
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY FROM THE COASTAL VALLEYS TO INTERIOR AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AND LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
(100S) HEAT. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT OF THE HEAT CLOSER TO
THE COAST. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY PUSH INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AND COMBINED WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE TRENDS FROM THE
NORTH COULD INCREASE HEAT CONCERNS CLOSER TO THE COAST AS MONSOON
MOISTURE TENDS TO DISRUPT THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE MARINE LAYER.
HEATWAVES COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY HAVE SUPPORTED LARGE WILDLAND
FIRES IN THE PAST, SO INCREASED FIRE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL (10 PERCENT CHANCE) OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOCUSED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY FOR
LOS ANGELES/VENTURA COUNTIES, EXTENDING ACROSS THE REMAINING
INTERIOR AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. DRY LIGHTNING
FIRE STARTS, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POTENTIAL
MONSOON THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS.
A SLOW COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HOWEVER
CONTINUED HEAT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
AVIATION
03/0714Z.
AT 06Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1400 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AROUND 4500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KWJF AND KPMD.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. MINIMUM FLIGHT CAT MAY BE
OFF BY ONE AND FLIGHT CATEGORIES CHANGES OFF BY 2 HOURS.
DURATION OF LOW VISIBILITY IS UNCERTAIN. KBUR, KVNY, AND KPRB:
THERE IS A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NO CIGS WILL FORM.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES MAY BE
OFF BY UP TO 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT CATEGORIES OFF BY 1 AT TIMES.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT REMAINING
BELOW 6 KTS BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF NO
LOW CLOUDS FORMING TONIGHT.
MARINE
02/755 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND, WITH A
LULL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE RAMPING
BACK UP. SCA WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOCAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH BEST CHANCES AROUND THE WESTERN CHANNEL
ISLANDS AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (30% CHANCE). SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FEET AT TIMES
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, THERE IS A MODERATE
(30-40%) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
(STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS), NEAR POINT
DUME, AND INTO THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL.
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/MUNROE
AVIATION...PHILLIPS/SCHOENFELD
MARINE...LEWIS/LUND/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page