569
FXUS66 KLOX 031031
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PDT THU JUL 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
03/302 AM.
NEAR NORMAL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR
THE COAST. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HEATWAVE OF THE
SUMMER IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
03/325 AM.
MILD WEATHER WITH A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND EACH DAY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS, WITH COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE
COASTS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S NEAR THE COAST,
80S COASTAL VALLEYS AND 90S LOWER MOUNTAINS TO THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION, AND WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL ACROSS THE LA BASIN.
OVERNIGHT TO MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
EACH DAY EXTENDING FROM THE BEACHES INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND
FAR INTERIOR AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY DURING THE DAY WITH
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS, AS IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ADDITIONALLY NORTHERLY SUNDOWNER
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY THIS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. GUSTS OF 25
TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS, WITH
CHANCES FOR LOCAL GUSTS OF 50 MPH. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY
RESULT IN AREAS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
AND PORTION OF THE ADJACENT COAST.
THE MADRE FIRE IS CURRENTLY BURNING IN SOUTHEAST SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTY AND CREATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SMOKE FOR THE CUYAMA
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL SMOKE IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING FAR SOUTH FROM ITS
ORIGIN OVER SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF VENTURA
COUNTY. SMOKEY SKIES MAY BE VISIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF LA COUNTY
TODAY, THOUGH IT IS LIKELY TO STAY ELEVATED WELL ABOVE THE
SURFACE.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
02/121 PM.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH NIGHT TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY RETREATING CLOSER TO THE COAST.
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ALL GUIDANCE HAS SOME FLAVOR OF A STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. MODERATE TO HIGH HEAT
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY FROM THE COASTAL VALLEYS TO INTERIOR AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AND LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
(100S) HEAT. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT OF THE HEAT CLOSER TO
THE COAST. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY PUSH INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AND COMBINED WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE TRENDS FROM THE
NORTH COULD INCREASE HEAT CONCERNS CLOSER TO THE COAST AS MONSOON
MOISTURE TENDS TO DISRUPT THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE MARINE LAYER.
HEATWAVES COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY HAVE SUPPORTED LARGE WILDLAND
FIRES IN THE PAST, SO INCREASED FIRE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL (10 PERCENT CHANCE) OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOCUSED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY FOR
LOS ANGELES/VENTURA COUNTIES, EXTENDING ACROSS THE REMAINING
INTERIOR AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. DRY LIGHTNING
FIRE STARTS, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POTENTIAL
MONSOON THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS.
A SLOW COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HOWEVER
CONTINUED HEAT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
AVIATION
03/0714Z.
AT 06Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1400 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AROUND 4500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KWJF AND KPMD.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. MINIMUM FLIGHT CAT MAY BE
OFF BY ONE AND FLIGHT CATEGORIES CHANGES OFF BY 2 HOURS.
DURATION OF LOW VISIBILITY IS UNCERTAIN. KBUR, KVNY, AND KPRB:
THERE IS A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NO CIGS WILL FORM.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES MAY BE
OFF BY UP TO 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT CATEGORIES OFF BY 1 AT TIMES.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT REMAINING
BELOW 6 KTS BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF NO
LOW CLOUDS FORMING TONIGHT.
MARINE
03/236 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. SCA
WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A
30% CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. LOCAL GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH BEST CHANCES AROUND THE
WESTERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (30% CHANCE). SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10
FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, THERE IS A MODERATE
(30-40%) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
(STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS). LOCAL GUSTS TO
20 KTS MAY OCCUR NEAR POINT DUME, AND INTO THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL
DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME.
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE
670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SCHOENFELD/MUNROE
AVIATION...PHILLIPS/SCHOENFELD
MARINE...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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