564
FXUS66 KLOX 042130
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
04/126 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR JULY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND, WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUING
FOR THE COASTS AND VALLEYS. TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
04/230 PM.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK KEEPING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
AREAS. HOWEVER, SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION AS CAMS ARE INDICATING A 3-5MB OFFSHORE TREND TO THE
EAST AND NORTH, RESULTING LESS STRATUS COVERAGE AND A LOWER DEPTH
AND EARLIER CLEARING. ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THAT THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS HAS RAPIDLY CLEARED MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL COAST. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THERE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE, MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY WITH JUST MINOR VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURES. SOME GUSTY
SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING BREEZES IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
04/229 PM.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY AND LAST MOST OF THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK, PEAKING WED AND THU AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
(595-597DAM) EXPANDS WEST FROM ARIZONA TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR WEST THE HEAT WILL REACH AS SOME
MODELS ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE TEMPERATURES. ONE FACTOR THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WILL BE THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. SOME OF
THE SOLUTIONS TODAY SHOWED GRADIENTS ACTUALLY TURNING LIGHTLY
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A VERY HOT
PATTERN. HOWEVER, MOST SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING A MODERATE TO EVEN
A STRONG ONSHORE PATTERN WHICH WOULD MITIGATE SOME OF THE HEAT
IMPACTS AND CONFINE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES TO THE DESERTS AND
INTERIOR SLO/SB COUNTIES. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS
FOR THE WARMER VALLEYS TO PEAK AT 100-105, DESERTS 105-108,
INLAND COASTAL AREAS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S, AND BEACHES IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY FOR THE COAST AND
VALLEYS BUT LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE INTERIOR AREAS UNTIL AT LEAST
NEXT WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS EVENT AND THAT DETERMINATION WILL BE MADE BY LATER THIS
WEEKEND OR MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
MODELS TODAY HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE
FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE
THAT OUT JUST YET.
AVIATION
04/1734Z.
AT 1657Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1900 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KWJF AND KPMD).
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES, AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING FOR REMAINING TAFS EXPECT FOR KBUR, KVNY, AND KPRB.
ALSO, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE CIGS DO NOT ARRIVE AT KSBP.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE TIMES
OF CIGS MAY BE OFF BY 2 HOURS. THERE IS A >30% CHANCE CIGS REMAIN
ABOVE 010 (MVFR). THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR CIGS TO LINGER FROM
17Z SAT - 00Z SUN. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE
CIGS (~010) ARRIVE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
04/200 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS AND THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THE
4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. LOCAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN
OUTER/INNER WATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS (PZZ645/670).
SIG WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK AROUND 8 TO 10 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN & SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL. LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 21 KTS MAY OCCUR NEAR POINT DUME, AND
INTO THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME.
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 645-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ZONES 645-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
PDT SATURDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...LEWIS/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW/SCHOENFELD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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