076
FXUS66 KLOX 060650
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1150 PM PDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
05/702 PM.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
JUMP UPWARDS TUESDAY, AND PEAK ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. HEAT AWAY
FROM THE COAST IS LIKELY TO BE HAZARDOUS TO OUTDOOR WORKERS AND
THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY LAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)
05/814 PM.
***UPDATE***
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE
VALUES, WITH LOW CLOUDS AFFECTING THE COAST AND SOME COASTAL
VALLEYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO MORNING HOURS. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE AGAIN AFFECTING SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY, SOMEWHAT
WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 MPH. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE INTERIOR PASSES AND
CANYONS OF LA COUNTY, INTO THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WHERE GUSTS ARE
BETWEEN 25 TO 30 MPH.
SUNDAY EXPECT GOOD CLEARING IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS FOR COASTAL
AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST, WITH
80S TO 90S FURTHER INLAND, INCREASING TO UPPER 90S IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
JUST VERY MINOR DAY TO DAY CHANGES THROUGH MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
MARINE LAYER WAS QUITE A BIT LESS EXTENSIVE THIS MORNING AS
ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENED AND THE MARINE INVERSION DROPPED BY AROUND
500 FEET. EXPECTING A SIMILAR SCENARIO TONIGHT, THEN MORE
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
WOBBLES A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH CAUSING THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE
FLOW TO INCREASE. BUT OVERALL VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY.
STARTING TUESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE BUBBLE OVER ARIZONA WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD AND BRING A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING
AROUND A 10 DEGREE JUMP IN HIGH TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, PUSHING THE WARMER VALLEYS CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH OF AN ONSHORE FLOW THAT COASTAL AREAS WITHIN 5
MILES OF THE COAST AND BELOW 300 FEET ELEVATION SHOULD MOSTLY
STAY IN THE 60S AND 70S BUT IN THAT INTERMEDIATE AREA AWAY FROM
THE COAST BUT NOT QUITE INTO THE VALLEYS (SUCH AS DOWNTOWN LA)
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 90.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
05/153 PM.
THE PEAK OF THIS HEATWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE WED AND THU WHEN THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS AT ITS STRONGEST OVER SO CAL. THERE IS
STILL A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON HOW STRONG THE HIGH WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THE
FORECAST HIGHS NEXT WEEK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED
TODAY WITH WARMER VALLEYS AROUND 105, DESERTS 105-108, AND
INTERMEDIATE AREAS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH A +/- 5 DEGREE
ERROR WINDOW. HOWEVER, AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER CONFIDENCE WILL
INCREASE AND THE ERROR WINDOW WILL NARROW. THERE STILL REMAINS A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS BUT THAT MAY HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL AS LATE AS MONDAY OR TUESDAY SINCE THE CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE VERY MARGINAL FOR HEAT RISK, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE COASTAL VALLEYS.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING
COAST AND VALLEY TEMPERATURES DOWN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, BUT THERE MAY BE VERY LITTLE RELIEF FOR INTERIOR
AREAS LIKE THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND INTERIOR SLO/SB COUNTIES. DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAT THERE THE CHANCES
FOR HEAT ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS ARE HIGHER THEN THAN OTHER AREAS.
AVIATION
06/0646Z.
AT 0616Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 800 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPRB, KWJF, AND KPMD. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF CIGS ARRIVING AT KPRB FROM 12Z-15Z SUN.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTION CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT CATEGORY
MINIMUMS BY ONE CATEGORY. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF NO CIGS
DEVELOPING AT KSBA, AND A 30% CHANCE AT KOXR AND KCMA, AND A 20%
CHANCE AT KLAX, KSMO, AND KLGB. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
AT KBUR AND KVNY FROM 12Z-16Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE
OFF BY ONE CATEGORY. ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF CIGS MAY BE OFF BY 2
HOURS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF NO CIGS FORMING THIS MORNING. NO
SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
BKN004-010 CIGS FROM 12-16Z.
MARINE
05/743 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS AND THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF LOCALIZED GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS (35 KT) ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF PZZ670 AND AROUND POINT CONCEPTION THIS
EVENING. THERE ARE MODERATE CHANCES FOR SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE
LIKELY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE OUTER WATERS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FROM
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MID-WEEK
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 21 KTS MAY OCCUR NEAR POINT DUME, AND INTO THE
SAN PEDRO CHANNEL DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE
670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...BLACK/KL
SYNOPSIS...SCHOENFELD/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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