087
FXUS66 KLOX 062042
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
142 PM PDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
06/108 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE EITHER BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH MONDAY. A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND WILL START TUESDAY,
AND HEAT WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH MOST TEMPERATURES
6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME COOLING EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL, THEN WARMING
TEMPERATURES AGAIN THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
06/129 PM.
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER
SIDE WITH A STEADY DOSE OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS THAT MAY REACH
INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY EXPECTED TO
VERY SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
THE LOW WILL SLOWLY GET NUDGED NORTH AND THEN EAST AS BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE FROM ARIZONA PUSHES INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT A WARMING TREND IN ALL AREAS BUT MORE SO INLAND THAN THE
COAST. MODELS TODAY ACTUALLY CAME IN A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE
950MB TEMPERATURES, EVEN THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE REMAINED
UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTING
LOWERING OF THE MARINE LAYER AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. BUT FOR NOW FELT THAT TRIMMING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF
THE FORECAST HIGHS WAS APPROPRIATE AND WILL SEE HOW THE HIGHER RES
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ADJUST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WITH THE
MODEST LOWERING OF HIGHS DECIDED TO TABLE ANY HEAT ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR NOW.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
06/141 PM.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THURSDAY, THEN A COOLING
TREND WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
PAC NW AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS WELL BUT REMAIN IN PLACE. BY
NEXT SUNDAY AND GOING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK MOST OF THE
ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN EVEN STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPING FOR A RETURN
OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES, POTENTIALLY HOTTER THAN THIS WEEK. THERE
IS ALSO A DEVELOPING SIGNAL FOR MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY AROUND THE 15TH OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION
06/1730Z.
AT 1632Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1300 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 3700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT SITES (KWJF AND KPMD).
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF FOR KPRB AFTER 10Z SUN. THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF IFR CIGS ARRIVING. OTHERWISE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF BY 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT MINIMUMS BY ONE
CATEGORY. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF LIFR CONDS AT KOXR/KCMA FROM
10Z TO 15Z MON. SLIGHTLY LOWER ODDS (20% CHC) OF CIGS ARRIVING AT
KBUR/KVNY THROUGH AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF
CIGS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. MINIMUM CIG HEIGHTS MAY BE OFF +/-
200 FEET. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR
IFR CIGS TO RETURN FROM 10Z TO 15Z MON.
MARINE
06/121 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
OUTER/INNER WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. MODERATE CHANCES FOR
SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY CONFINED TO THE WATERS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION MONDAY & TUESDAY, BEFORE EXPANDING TO INCLUDE
MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEAS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MID-WEEK
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 21 KTS MAY OCCUR NEAR POINT DUME, AND INTO THE
SAN PEDRO CHANNEL DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 645-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW/SCHOENFELD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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