214
FXUS66 KLOX 071120
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
420 AM PDT MON JUL 7 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
07/244 AM.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE EITHER BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL, FOLLOWED
BY A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND STARTING TUESDAY. THE HEAT SPELL
WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH MANY AREAS 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
07/336 AM.
TODAY WILL BE ONE LAST DAY OF EITHER BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEFORE A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND STARTS ON TUESDAY.
THE COOLING IMPACT OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORCAL WILL
DIMINISH STARTING TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO STRENGTHENS AND NOSES INTO THE SOCAL
REGION. WARMING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, BUT WILL BE
THE MOST DRAMATIC AWAY FROM THE BEACHES AND COASTAL PLAINS, WHERE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DAMPEN SOME OF THE HEAT. THIS HEAT
SPELL WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH MANY AREAS AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY TO PEAK
AT 95-103 DEGREES FOR INLAND VALLEYS, 100-105 ACROSS THE DESERTS,
AND NEAR 90 FOR INLAND COASTAL AREAS INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LA. THE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS 10-15+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (THAT
WOULD WARRANT EXTENSIVE HEAT ADVISORIES/WARNINGS) HAS DECREASED,
THUS CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
MODERATE HEATRISK IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF LA COUNTY (EXCEPT FOR
THE BEACHES), MEANING THAT HEAT WILL AFFECT SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS
SUCH AS OUTDOOR WORKERS OR THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING OR
ADEQUATE HYDRATION. SOME INTERIOR AREAS ACROSS THE COUNTIES NORTH
OF LA WILL ALSO SEE MODERATE HEATRISK. AT THIS POINT, THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME HEAT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED, THOUGH THEY WOULD
BE RATHER BORDERLINE. THE HOT SPELL WILL ALSO BRING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS ALL NON- COASTAL AREAS, AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST
SANTA SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE
WITH SOME AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS, INCLUDING ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND NORTHERLY SUNDOWNER WINDS FOR SW SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY.
THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR THE
REGION THAT MAY BRING SOME MONSOONAL MOSITURE AND PWATS OF 1+
INCH LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THUS THERE IS AROUND A 5
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
AND SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
07/307 AM.
THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, IF NOT
SLIGHTLY WARMER BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES. FRIDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN STRENGTH, THOUGH IT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND VERY STRONG ONSHORE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RETURN, LEADING TO SEVERAL DEGREES
OF COOLING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE HEATRISK DROPPING TO THE MINOR
CATEGORY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME INTERIOR
AREAS SUCH AS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY, THE WESTERN SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY, AND THE CUYAMA VALLEY, THAT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MODERATE HEATRISK. THERE IS A DEVELOPING SIGNAL FOR MONSOON
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY AROUND THE 16TH OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION
07/1118Z.
AT 1057Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 1800 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF
22 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KWJF AND KPMD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF FOR KPRB THROUGH 16Z. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE
OF NO LOW CLOUDS. OTHERWISE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KBUR AND KVNY THROUGH 17Z, THEN HIGH
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE FOR NO LOW CLOUDS
THIS MORNING. LIFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE (40% CHANCE).
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS THROUGH 02Z, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE
THEREAFTER. AT KSBP AND KSMX, LIFR CONDS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. FOR TONIGHT, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF CIGS TO
KSBP AND KSMX, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN MINIMUM FLIGHT CAT. RETURN
TIME MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND MINIMUM FLIGHT CAT MAY BE OFF BY
ONE CAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR NO LOW CLOUDS AT KSBP (30%) AND
KSMX (20%). LOW CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF CIGS AT SITES SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR RETURN OF CIGS
06Z-12Z, HIGH CHANCES FOR LA COUNTY SITES.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 05Z, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE
THEREAFTER. CIGS MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN 008-012 THROUGH 16Z.
DEPARTURE OF CIGS MAY BE OFF +/- 90 MINS. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE
FOR NO CIGS TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIG HEIGHT IF THEY ARRIVE.
THERE IS A 40% CHANCE FOR CIGS 003-004 IF THEY ARRIVE. NO
SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 17Z, THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE
THEREAFTER. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE FOR NO LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING,
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN MINIMUM FLIGHT CAT. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE
FOR 002-004 CIGS THIS MORNING.
MARINE
07/201 AM.
LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS MAY LINGER IN PORTIONS OF
THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCPETION INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND HIGHER
CONFIDENCE TUESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS EXPANDING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE OUTER WATERS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
THE INNER WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SCA
LEVEL WINDS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL MONDAY WITH LOCAL SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN THE
EASTERN PORTION AS WELL AS NEAR POINT DUME, AND INTO THE
SAN PEDRO CHANNEL. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SCA LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE CHANNEL AND THE INNER WATERS OFF THE LA AND OC COASTS
INCLUDING NEARSHORE ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SCA WINDS BACK OFF
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT REMAIN MODERATE FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL ALONG WITH LOCAL
GUSTS NEAR POINT DUME, AND INTO THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL. CHOPPY,
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL BE COMMON TUESDAY.
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND IN
THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE
WATERS OFF THE CENTRAL COAST.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...SCHOENFELD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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