583
FXUS66 KLOX 080158
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
658 PM PDT MON JUL 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
07/111 PM.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE EITHER BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL, FOLLOWED
BY A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND STARTING TUESDAY. THE HEAT SPELL
WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH MANY AREAS 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
07/154 PM.
TEMPERATURES WERE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DRIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASED. HOWEVER, BIG CHANGES COMING TOMORROW AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA EXPANDS
WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SQUASH THE MARINE LAYER TO UNDER 1000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO INLAND AREAS AND MINOR WARMING TO COASTAL
AREAS. VALLEY HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 103,
BUT WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF 106 IN WOODLAND HILLS. COASTAL AREAS
MORE THAN 10 MILES INLAND IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. AND FAR
INTERIOR AREAS 100-106 WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING 108.
OVERALL HIGHS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AREAS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION WILL WARM UP A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY DUE
TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW BUT BY THURSDAY INLAND
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 100 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL MOSTLY BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, PARTLY DUE TO RELATIVELY COOL OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WHICH WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL
HOURS OF RELIEF. STILL, PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID ANY STRENUOUS OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND STAY HYDRATED. WILL REVISIT
THE POSSIBILTY OF HEAT HEADLINES TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE AND TRENDS.
SOME GUSTY AND HOT SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVENINGS.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
07/204 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL STILL BE WARM BUT HIGHS WILL MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AGAIN, AND POSSIBLY EVEN STRONGER THAN THIS WEEK.
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A VERY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW DURING
THAT PERIOD, AROUND 10MB TO THE EAST AND 5-7MB TO THE NORTH BASED
ON THE 12Z GFS. IF THIS HOLDS THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR COAST AND VALLEYS
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR INTERIOR AREAS, BUT WITH THE ADDED
GUSTY ONSHORE WIND FACTOR THAT COULD INCREASE THE RISK OF FIRE
ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
08/0156Z.
AT 23Z NEAR KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1500 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KWJF AND KPMD.
OVERALL, MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF BY 2 HOURS FOR KSBP/KSMX AND 3
HOURS FOR OTHER AIRFIELDS. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT
KLGB. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF LIFR CIGS ARRIVING FROM 10Z TO 16Z
TUE AT KBUR/KVNY.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF
LIFR CIGS ~004 10Z TO 16Z TUE. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CIGS
RETURNING (+/- 3 HRS). NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT
EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF
LIFR CIGS ARRIVING FROM 10Z TO 16Z TUE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
07/236 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
WATERS AROUND POINT CONCEPTION AND THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MODERATE CONFIDENCE). BETTER
CHANCES ON TUESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS EXPANDING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE OUTER WATERS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
THE INNER WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SCA
LEVEL WINDS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN
THE EASTERN PORTION AS WELL AS NEAR POINT DUME, AND INTO THE SAN
PEDRO CHANNEL. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SCA LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE CHANNEL AND THE INNER WATERS OFF THE LA AND OC COASTS
INCLUDING NEARSHORE ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SCA WINDS BACK OFF
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT REMAIN MODERATE FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL ALONG WITH LOCAL
GUSTS NEAR POINT DUME, AND INTO THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL. CHOPPY,
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL BE COMMON TUESDAY.
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND IN
THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE
WATERS OFF THE CENTRAL COAST.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...PHILLIPS/BLACK
MARINE...LEWIS/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...SCHOENFELD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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