857
FXUS66 KLOX 080737
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1237 AM PDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
07/812 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND ON TUESDAY. THE
HEAT SPELL WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH MANY AREAS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
07/1004 PM.
***UPDATE***
TEMPERATURES VARIED ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE COOL 60S
TO 70S AT THE COASTS, AND 80S TO 90S FOR MANY VALLEYS AND
MOUNTAINS. PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR REACHED THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES. HIGHS WILL TREND UP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, ALSO COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER. THIS COULD
RESULT IN LESS CLOUDS OFF THE VENTURA AND LA COASTS, ALONG WITH
DENSE FOG OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR THE COASTS. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK, HOWEVER COULD START SEEING SUNDOWNER WINDS OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY PEAKING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
TEMPERATURES WERE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DRIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASED. HOWEVER, BIG CHANGES COMING TOMORROW AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA EXPANDS
WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SQUASH THE MARINE LAYER TO UNDER 1000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO INLAND AREAS AND MINOR WARMING TO COASTAL
AREAS. VALLEY HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 103,
BUT WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF 106 IN WOODLAND HILLS. COASTAL AREAS
MORE THAN 10 MILES INLAND IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. AND FAR
INTERIOR AREAS 100-106 WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING 108.
OVERALL HIGHS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AREAS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION WILL WARM UP A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY DUE
TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW BUT BY THURSDAY INLAND
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 100 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL MOSTLY BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, PARTLY DUE TO RELATIVELY COOL OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WHICH WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL
HOURS OF RELIEF. STILL, PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID ANY STRENUOUS OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND STAY HYDRATED. WILL REVISIT
THE POSSIBILTY OF HEAT HEADLINES TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE AND TRENDS.
SOME GUSTY AND HOT SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVENINGS.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
07/204 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL STILL BE WARM BUT HIGHS WILL MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AGAIN, AND POSSIBLY EVEN STRONGER THAN THIS WEEK.
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A VERY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW DURING
THAT PERIOD, AROUND 10MB TO THE EAST AND 5-7MB TO THE NORTH BASED
ON THE 12Z GFS. IF THIS HOLDS THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR COAST AND VALLEYS
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR INTERIOR AREAS, BUT WITH THE ADDED
GUSTY ONSHORE WIND FACTOR THAT COULD INCREASE THE RISK OF FIRE
ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
08/0737Z.
AT 0656Z NEAR KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 900 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 4400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KWJF AND KPMD.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY 2 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KSMO AND KLGB (30% CHANCE), AND
KSBA AND KLAX (10% CHANCE).
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR-LIFR CIGS ARRIVING FROM 10Z-16Z AT
KBUR/KVNY.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF LIFR
CIGS ~004 10Z-16Z, AND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO CIGS FORMING AT
THROUGH TUE MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
BKN003-BKN007 CIGS FROM 10Z-16Z.
MARINE
07/812 PM.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE (40-50% CHANCE(IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND POINT CONCEPTION AND THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS THROUGH LATE EVENING FOR THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, AND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS (PZZ673-676). BETTER CHANCES ON TUESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN SCA LEVEL WINDS EXPANDING ACROSS THE REST OF THE OUTER WATERS
AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THE INNER WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SCA
LEVEL WINDS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CHANNEL AND THE INNER WATERS OFF THE LA
AND OC COASTS INCLUDING NEARSHORE ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SCA
WINDS BACK OFF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT REMAIN MODERATE FOR THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL ALONG
WITH LOCAL GUSTS NEAR POINT DUME, AND INTO THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL.
CHOPPY, SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL BE COMMON TUESDAY.
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND IN
THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE
WATERS OFF THE CENTRAL COAST.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/MW
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...LEWIS/BLACK/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...SCHOENFELD/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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