621
FXUS66 KLOX 081046
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
346 AM PDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
07/812 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND ON TUESDAY. THE
HEAT SPELL WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH MANY AREAS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
08/346 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOCUSED AWAY FROM THE
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE WARM UP IS ATTRIBUTED TO A RAPIDLY
BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND OFFSHORE TRENDS
FROM THE NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY PEAK AROUND 70 RIGHT AT THE COAST TO NEAR 90 WARMER
INTERIOR COASTAL AREAS SUCH AS LOS ANGELES, WHILE WARMER VALLEYS
WILL SEE HIGHS 95 TO 105+. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WITH A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF HITTING HEAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MAINLY FOR LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. NIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
ALTHOUGH MONSOON MOISTURE MAY INTERFERE WITH LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAVE FOR SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN PARTICULAR.
THERE IS A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MONSOONAL SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OF VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES, MAINLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY
LIGHTING FIRE STARTS WOULD LIKELY BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT
IF A THUNDERSTORM DID FORM.
BREEZY NORTHWEST TO ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNERS BECOMING LIKELY (60 PERCENT CHANCE)
FOR SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENINGS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AWAY FROM
THE COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH WITH NEW FIRE
STARTS.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
08/346 AM.
A SLOW COOL DOWN IS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH REDUCED HEAT
RISK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE RIDGE
REBUILDING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST
MODERATE HEAT RISK (WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S AND 100S AWAY FROM
THE COAST). THE RIDGE MAY WOBBLE INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
MONSOONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN AND IF THIS WILL HAPPEN.
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR PRONE INLAND
AREAS SUCH AS TYPICAL MOUNTAIN CORRIDORS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
FOOTHILLS. LOW CLOUDS MAY PUSH BACK INTO LOWER VALLEYS DURING THIS
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IF A MODERATE EDDY FORMS BY FRIDAY MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF THE SUNDOWNERS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH WITH NEW FIRE STARTS.
AVIATION
08/0737Z.
AT 0656Z NEAR KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 900 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 4400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KWJF AND KPMD.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY 2 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KSMO AND KLGB (30% CHANCE), AND
KSBA AND KLAX (10% CHANCE).
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR-LIFR CIGS ARRIVING FROM 10Z-16Z AT
KBUR/KVNY.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF LIFR
CIGS ~004 10Z-16Z, AND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO CIGS FORMING AT
THROUGH TUE MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
BKN003-BKN007 CIGS FROM 10Z-16Z.
MARINE
08/327 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL THE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
SCA WINDS WILL LAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL AND THE INNER WATERS OFF THE COAST OF LA AND ORANGE
COUNTIES, WITH A 50% CHANCE OF RETURNING WEDNESAY AFTERNOON, AND
CHOPPY WIND- DRIVEN SEAS WILL BE PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCA WINDS LIKELY TO LAST FOR THE
INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND
RETURN AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATER, WINDS ARE FAVORED TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
SEAS NEARING 10 FT.
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND IN
THE MORNING HOURS, WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE WATERS OFF THE CENTRAL
COAST, TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM
PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MUNROE
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...SCHOENFELD
SYNOPSIS...SCHOENFELD/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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