354
FXUS66 KLOX 081621
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
921 AM PDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
08/911 AM.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AND PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WITH MANY AREAS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
08/920 AM.
***UPDATE***
THE WARMING TREND IS BEGINNING TODAY (MAINLY SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION) WITH MANY AREAS ALREADY 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. A DECREASE IN MORNING STRATUS ALONG WITH
WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER WARMING FACTOR FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NORTHERN AREAS THE UPPER LOW IS STILL HAVING
A COOLING INFLUENCE WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER SO ANY WARMING
THERE TODAY WILL BE MINIMAL.
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ADDITIONAL
WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL MOSTLY
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS SO FOR NOW NO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
PLANNED FOR THIS EVENT.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOCUSED AWAY FROM THE
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE WARM UP IS ATTRIBUTED TO A RAPIDLY
BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND OFFSHORE TRENDS
FROM THE NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY PEAK AROUND 70 RIGHT AT THE COAST TO NEAR 90 WARMER
INTERIOR COASTAL AREAS SUCH AS LOS ANGELES, WHILE WARMER VALLEYS
WILL SEE HIGHS 95 TO 105+. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WITH A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF HITTING HEAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MAINLY FOR LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. NIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
ALTHOUGH MONSOON MOISTURE MAY INTERFERE WITH LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAVE FOR SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN PARTICULAR.
BREEZY NORTHWEST TO ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNERS BECOMING LIKELY (60 PERCENT CHANCE)
FOR SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENINGS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AWAY FROM
THE COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH WITH NEW FIRE
STARTS.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
08/346 AM.
A SLOW COOL DOWN IS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH REDUCED HEAT
RISK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE RIDGE
REBUILDING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST
MODERATE HEAT RISK (WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S AND 100S AWAY FROM
THE COAST). THE RIDGE MAY WOBBLE INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
MONSOONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN AND IF THIS WILL HAPPEN.
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR PRONE INLAND
AREAS SUCH AS TYPICAL MOUNTAIN CORRIDORS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
FOOTHILLS. LOW CLOUDS MAY PUSH BACK INTO LOWER VALLEYS DURING THIS
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IF A MODERATE EDDY FORMS BY FRIDAY MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF THE SUNDOWNERS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH WITH NEW FIRE STARTS.
AVIATION
08/1254Z.
AT 1204Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 400 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KWJF, KPMD, KVNY, AND KBUR.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY +/-1 HOUR THIS MORNING, AND +/- 2 HOURS THIS
EVENING. CIGS MAY SCATTER AND REFORM UNTIL 16Z TUE AT KLAX, KSMO
AND KSBA. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KLGB FROM 14Z-16Z
TUE.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS MAY SCATTER AND REFORM
UNTIL 16Z TODAY, AND THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
08/327 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL THE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
SCA WINDS WILL LAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL AND THE INNER WATERS OFF THE COAST OF LA AND ORANGE
COUNTIES, WITH A 50% CHANCE OF RETURNING WEDNESAY AFTERNOON, AND
CHOPPY WIND- DRIVEN SEAS WILL BE PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCA WINDS LIKELY TO LAST FOR THE
INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND
RETURN AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATER, WINDS ARE FAVORED TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
SEAS NEARING 10 FT.
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND IN
THE MORNING HOURS, WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE WATERS OFF THE CENTRAL
COAST, TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM
PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/MUNROE
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...SCHOENFELD
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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