668
FXUS66 KLOX 082119
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
219 PM PDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
08/109 PM.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AND PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WITH MANY AREAS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
08/147 PM.
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY REMAINS MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED. A
WARMING TREND BEGAN ON SCHEDULE TODAY WITH MOST AREAS 3-8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ONLY COASTAL AREAS REMAINED UNCHANGED FROM
YESTERDAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY, AND INTERIOR AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE
1-2 DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING THURSDAY BEFORE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS DURING
THE PEAK OF THIS WARMING TREND TOMORROW AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S FOR THE VALLEYS, 100-105 FOR
THE DESERTS, AND 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE INTERMEDIATE AREAS
BETWEEN THE INLAND COASTAL ZONE AND THE VALLEYS. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH COMBINED
WITH STILL COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S,
DOESN'T QUITE QUALIFY FOR HEAT HAZARDS. HOWEVER, PEOPLE ARE STILL
STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO AVOID STRENUOUS ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
STANDARD ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN MOST AREAS, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
WHERE SUNDOWNERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
EVENING, MOSTLY 40 MPH OR LESS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL BE
DROPPING TO 1000 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY, CONFINING ANY
STRATUS TO COASTAL AREAS AND THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. PATCHY DENSE
MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE AS WELL, THOUGH SUNDOWNERS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CLOUD/FOG FREE.
SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS
AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES BY 2-4MB. MOST OF THE COOLING WILL BE
ACROSS COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS BUT EVEN INTERIOR AREAS WILL BE
2-4 DEGREES COOLER WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. HIGHS IN
MOST AREAS WILL BE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF NORMAL.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
08/200 PM.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR COAST AND SOME COASTAL
VALLEYS. THEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE MOST AREAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR INTERIOR AREAS FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INLAND WHERE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FROM THE EAST
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES, ESPECIALLY IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SLO COUNTY. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE WILL ALSO CREATE GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS IN THOSE
AREAS AND WITH LOW HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING FIRE
DANGER.
ONE OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUE NEXT WEEK IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE EAST. MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING IN TUE INTO WED.
HOWEVER, PW'S HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING THE LAST FEW RUNS SO
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS QUITE LOW.
AVIATION
08/2116Z.
AROUND 21Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 600 FEET DEEP AT
KLAX. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 1900 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE NEAR 25 DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR VALLEY AND DESERT
TERMINALS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS. TIMING OF ARRIVAL COULD BE OFF BY TWO HOURS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD ONE CATEGORY LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WITH
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
KLAX...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
IN AS EARLY AS 09Z, OR AS LATE AS 13Z. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS
IN IFR CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AROUND 16Z WEDNESDAY.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO WIND
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
08/218 PM.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTNUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL THE WATERS AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A
MODERATE-TO-HIGH (40-50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
RETURNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
AND A LIKELY-TO-IMMINENT (70-80 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR THE WATERS
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS A
HIGH-TO-LIKELY (50-60 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
LINGERING ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE
CHANNEL ISLANDS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, WINDS WILL VERY LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCA WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS OUT TO 10 NM
OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL COAST, BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY BEYOND 10 NM OFFSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH-TO-LIKELY (50-60
PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OUT TO 10 NM OFFSHORE.
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND IN
THE MORNING HOURS, WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE WATERS OFF THE CENTRAL
COAST, TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM
PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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