484
FXUS66 KLOX 090722
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1222 AM PDT WED JUL 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
08/743 PM.
A WARMING TREND AFFECTING SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WILL PEAK
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH MANY AREAS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)
08/846 PM.
***UPDATE***
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH PASSES EAST, THE GRADIENT
WILL EASE OFF OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECTING THIS TO
FURTHER COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER, AND LIMIT STRATUS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE
WATERS AND NEAR THE COASTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN
THE SHALLOW, 400 FT MARINE LAYER. ONSHORE LAX-DAG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS SHOULD BE WEAKER, AROUND 2 MB BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FURTHER SUPPORTING DENSE FOG. HOWEVER, SEEING AN EVEN WEAKER
GRADIENT THURSDAY MORNING SO THAT WILL BE ANOTHER PROMISING TIME
TO SEE DENSE FOG NEAR THE COASTS.
AFTERNOON CLOUDS MOVED INTO THE AREA AS SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE,
CORRELATING WITH INCREASING PWAT VALUES, REACHED THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THIS ONLY RESULTED IN SOME CLOUDS OVER THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY AND SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS TODAY. PWAT VALUES ABOVE 1" ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO ITS PLACE.
THINKING THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NORTH WINDS ARRIVE.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY REMAINS MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED. A
WARMING TREND BEGAN ON SCHEDULE TODAY WITH MOST AREAS 3-8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ONLY COASTAL AREAS REMAINED UNCHANGED FROM
YESTERDAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY, AND INTERIOR AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE
1-2 DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING THURSDAY BEFORE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS DURING
THE PEAK OF THIS WARMING TREND TOMORROW AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S FOR THE VALLEYS, 100-105 FOR
THE DESERTS, AND 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE INTERMEDIATE AREAS
BETWEEN THE INLAND COASTAL ZONE AND THE VALLEYS. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH COMBINED
WITH STILL COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S,
DOESN'T QUITE QUALIFY FOR HEAT HAZARDS. HOWEVER, PEOPLE ARE STILL
STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO AVOID STRENUOUS ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
STANDARD ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN MOST AREAS, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
WHERE SUNDOWNERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
EVENING, MOSTLY 40 MPH OR LESS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL BE
DROPPING TO 1000 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY, CONFINING ANY
STRATUS TO COASTAL AREAS AND THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. PATCHY DENSE
MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE AS WELL, THOUGH SUNDOWNERS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CLOUD/FOG FREE.
SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS
AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES BY 2-4MB. MOST OF THE COOLING WILL BE
ACROSS COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS BUT EVEN INTERIOR AREAS WILL BE
2-4 DEGREES COOLER WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. HIGHS IN
MOST AREAS WILL BE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF NORMAL.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
08/200 PM.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR COAST AND SOME COASTAL
VALLEYS. THEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE MOST AREAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR INTERIOR AREAS FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INLAND WHERE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FROM THE EAST
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES, ESPECIALLY IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SLO COUNTY. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE WILL ALSO CREATE GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS IN THOSE
AREAS AND WITH LOW HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING FIRE
DANGER.
ONE OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUE NEXT WEEK IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE EAST. MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING IN TUE INTO WED.
HOWEVER, PW'S HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING THE LAST FEW RUNS SO
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS QUITE LOW.
AVIATION
09/0721Z.
AT 0644Z, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 600 FEET DEEP AT KLAX. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 2400 FEET WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 25 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KPMD, KWJF, KBUR, AND KVNY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER TAFS. THERE IS AROUND A 20%
CHANCE OF LIFR-IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KLAX, KSMO, KLGB, KOXR,
KCMA, AND KSBA FROM 13Z-16Z THIS MORNING. AT KPRB, THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF NO CIGS DEVELOPING THROUGH WED MORNING. FOR KSBP AND
KSMX DENSE FOG AND VSBY AS LOW AS 1/4SM WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
10Z-17Z TUE.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
OVC003-OVC006 CIGS FROM 13-16Z WED. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WINDS
EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
08/749 PM.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR POINT CONCEPTION AND SOUTHWARD TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND, AND OVER THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THERE IS A MODERATE (40-60 PERCENT CHANCE) OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS AFFECTING THE INNER WATERS, ESPECIALLY THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL. CONTINUED SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY (60-80 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR
THE OUTER WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL
ISLANDS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE THEY CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, WINDS WILL VERY LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCA WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS OUT TO 10 NM
OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL COAST, BUT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
BEYOND 10 NM OFFSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH-TO-LIKELY (50-60 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUT TO 10
NM OFFSHORE.
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND IN
THE MORNING HOURS, WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE WATERS OFF THE CENTRAL
COAST, TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM
PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/MW
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...HALL/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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