029
FXUS66 KLOX 091114
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
414 AM PDT WED JUL 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
09/300 AM.
A WARMING TREND AFFECTING SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WILL PEAK
TODAY AND THURSDAY, WITH MANY AREAS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
09/259 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP INTO TODAY WITH
SIMILARLY HOT TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HEAT RISK FOCUSED AWAY
FROM THE COAST INTO THURSDAY. THE WARM UP IS ATTRIBUTED TO A
RAPIDLY BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE EAST THROUGH TODAY AND OFFSHORE
TRENDS FROM THE NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. COASTAL AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES, WITH INTERIOR COASTAL
AREAS LIKE LOS ANGELES REACHING NEAR 90 DEGREES. WARMER VALLEYS
WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS BETWEEN 95 AND 105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES
ARE UNLIKELY DUE THE RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF THE HEAT AS WELL
AS RELATIVELY COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES PROVIDING SOME RELIEF.
NIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST EACH
DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG THIS AND THURSDAY MORNING IN
PARTICULAR. MONSOON MOISTURE COULD LIMIT LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN
LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES, LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH ONLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
THERE IS A SMALL (5 PERCENT) CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
BREEZY NORTHWEST TO ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNERS BECOMING LIKELY (60 PERCENT CHANCE)
FOR SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY THIS AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SUPPORTS A STRONG ONSHORE PUSH INTO
FRIDAY, BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, BUT WITH INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH WINDS LOCALLY APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. LOW CLOUDS MAY PUSH BACK
INTO LOWER VALLEYS BY FRIDAY MORNING IF A MODERATE EDDY FORMS IN
THE WAKE OF THE SUNDOWNERS.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
09/259 AM.
THE COOL DOWN WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH REDUCED HEAT RISK
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE RIDGE
REBUILDING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE HEAT
RISK (WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S AND 100S AWAY FROM THE COAST).
THE RIDGE MAY WOBBLE INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR MONSOONAL
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES NEXT WEEK, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WHEN AND IF THIS WILL HAPPEN.
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR PRONE INLAND
AREAS SUCH AS TYPICAL MOUNTAIN CORRIDORS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUING AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAPID FIRE GROWTH WITH ANY NEW FIRE STARTS.
AVIATION
09/1113Z.
AT 08Z, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 500 FEET DEEP AT KLAX. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 2100 FEET WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 27 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KPMD, KWJF, KBUR, AND KVNY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER TAFS. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE
OF LIFR-IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KLAX, KSMO, KLGB, KOXR, KCMA, AND
KSBA FROM 13Z-16Z AND AGAIN AFTER 08Z. FOR KSBP AND KSMX DENSE
FOG AND VSBY AS LOW AS 1/4SM WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 10Z-17Z AND
AGAIN AFTER 05Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF
OVC003-OVC006 CIGS FROM 13-16Z AND AGAIN AFTER 08Z. NO
SIGNIFICANT EAST WINDS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
09/228 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, SPREADING TO THE NORTHERN
WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE (30%
CHANCE) THIS EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION AND SANTA CRUZ ISLAND.
SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT
SAL AND THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY AND
THURSDAY. LOCAL SCA WINDS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING OFF THE COAST OF
LA AND ORANGE COUNTIES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL
AND NEAR POINT MUGU. STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND IN
THE MORNING HOURS, WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE WATERS OFF THE CENTRAL
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MUNROE
AVIATION...MUNROE/SCHOENFELD
MARINE...SCHOENFELD
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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