389
FXUS66 KLOX 100423
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
923 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
09/828 PM.
A WARMING TREND WILL PEAK FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THEN, A COOLING
TREND WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR COAST AND SOME COASTAL VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)
09/922 PM.
***UPDATE***
TODAY WAS WARM WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
THE COOLEST LOCATIONS WERE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WINDS LIMITED WARMING, AND HIGHS WERE IN
THE 60S. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO WARM FURTHER THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE. NORTH SUNDOWNER WINDS AROUND 30-50 MPH HAVE INCREASED
THIS EVENING, AND COULD SEE ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. STILL,
COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD EXIST ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, AND
HIGHS WERE DECREASED ABOUT 3 DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE RETURNED THE CENTRAL COAST, AND MAY GROW DENSE
AT TIMES. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR CLOUDS AND FOG TO RETURN TO
PORTIONS OF THE LA COUNTY COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT IN
GENERAL WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TONIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST
OTHERWISE LOOKS ON TRACK.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA EXPANDS INTO CALIFORNIA. CENTRAL COAST AREAS
ARE A DAY BEHIND AS THE LINGERING TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
IS LIMITING THE WARMING THERE TODAY. WILL HAVE ANOTHER EVENING OF
WARM SUNDOWNERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25-35 AND ISOLATED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45-50 MPH
IN THE REFUGIO AREA.
ANOTHER WARM DAY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MARINE LAYER STRATUS AND DENSE FOG WILL PUSH INLAND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG ACROSS COASTAL LA COUNTY EARLY THURSDAY.
A STRONG ONSHORE TREND ON FRIDAY WILL FORCE COOLER MARITIME AIR
INTO THE VALLEYS AND BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN 4-8 DEGREES
FROM THURSDAY. MAY ALSO SEE INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE
COAST SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION AS WELL. FAR INTERIOR AREAS WILL
REMAIN HOT BUT LIKELY COOL A DEGREE OR TWO. INCREASING WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR INTERIOR AREAS.
BY SATURDAY MOST COAST AND VALLEY AREAS WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WORKING THEIR
WAY INTO THE VALLEYS WITH AGAIN GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
09/155 PM.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VERY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW NEXT WEEK,
BUT ALSO STILL HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. THE MARINE INVERSION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW BUT SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SNEAK INTO THE
VALLEYS FOR A FEW HOURS EACH MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TO
NEAR THE COAST BUT SOME BEACHES MAY REMAIN CLOUDY WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR COAST AND VALLEYS WILL BE 2-5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTERIOR AREAS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY
WARM AND WILL LIKELY WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS EACH AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER THERE
EACH DAY.
MODELS ALSO STILL INDICATING INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY
TUE AND WED THAT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT WITH AT LEAST A
5-10% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCALLY. LOW LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE DRY BUT CERTAINLY CAN'T RULE OUT SOME MONSOON
SHOWERS WITH PW'S INCREASING RAPIDLY TO OVER AN INCH.
AVIATION
10/0248Z.
AT 2124Z, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX. THERE WAS A SURFACE
BASED INVERSION, AND THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 2600 FEET
WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 27 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KPMD, KWJF, KBUR, AND KVNY.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN KPRB AFTER 10Z. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE FOR LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS 10Z TO 16Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. FOR KSMX THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE FOR 1/4SM VSBYS TONIGHT, WITH BEST CHANCES BETWEEN 07Z AND
15Z. ARRIVAL OF CIGS MAY BE OFF BY 2 HOURS. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE
FOR LIFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 08Z AT KLGB.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF
OVC003-OVC006 CIGS AND VSBYS 1SM TO 2SM FROM 08Z-16Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z
REMAINING UNDER 8 KTS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
09/828 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW-TO-MODERATE (20-30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF GALE
FORCE WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FROM NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
SOUTH TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND, HIGHEST THIS EVENING.
SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT
SAL AND THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCAL SCA WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR
THIS EVENING OFF THE COAST OF LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTIES,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL AND NEAR POINT DUME
DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME. STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE INNER WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND IN
THE MORNING HOURS, WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE WATERS OFF THE CENTRAL
COAST TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/MW
AVIATION...PHILLIPS/LEWIS
MARINE...HALL/LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...HALL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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