996
FXUS66 KLOX 101806
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1106 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2025
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
SYNOPSIS
10/901 AM.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER HOT
DAY AWAY FROM THE COAST TODAY. CLOSER TO THE COAST, A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL. A COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHEN. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME A STAPLE OF THE FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND, EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
10/949 AM.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE STRETCH IS ON TAP FOR TODAY AS THE RIDGE
CENTER MOVES NEAR OVERHEAD. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF A HEAT
ADVISORY BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE NEARING CRITERIA FOR ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT ACROSS THE WARMEST
VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS, BUT HEAT RISK VALUES STILL SIT JUST SHY.
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS STILL ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL COAST. LOW CLOUDS
ARE GIVING SOME HINT OF AN EARLY SURGE OF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BIGHT AND INTO THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY BEACHES. THIS
GIVES SOME INSIGHT INTO STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP
AND VALIDATE THE IDEA. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL LIKELY BECOME A STAPLE OF THE FORECAST THROUGH TH
WEEKEND.
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS INTACT FOR SOUTHWESTERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS REMAIN TIGHT. THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SOME THIS
MORNING, BUT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AGAIN AND GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL REDEVELOP. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF GOLETA OUT TO GAVIOTA.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE MARINE LAYER IS UNDER 1000 FT. THERE IS OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE
NORTH AND 3 MB OF ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST. MARINE LAYER STRATUS
COVERS THE CENTRAL COAST BUT IS LARGELY ABSENT FROM AREAS SOUTH
OF PT CONCEPTION. AMPLE SUNSHINE, LIMITED MARINE LAYER AND 594 DAM
HGTS (3 DAM ABOVE NORMAL) WILL BRING 2 TO 5 LOCALLY 7 DEGREES OF
WARMING TO MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS AT THE BEACHES WILL BE IN THE
70S, COASTAL AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES WILL BE IN THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S WHILE THE VLYS COOK UP TO 90 TO 103 DEGREES. TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT WILL DOMINATE THE LOWER MTN ELEVATIONS AND FAR
INTERIOR. THIS MAX TEMPS ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
QUITE HOT ENOUGH FOR HEAT ADVISORIES, BUT STILL PEOPLE WORKING OR
PLAYING OUTSIDE SHOULD BE MINDFUL OF THE HEAT.
ONE MORE ROUND OF ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNER WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ONSHORE PUSH TO THE EAST WILL BE ABOUT 2 MB STRONGER ON FRIDAY
WHILE THE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH WILL FLIP TO ABOUT 2 MB
ONSHORE. THIS WILL BRING MORE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO THE COASTS
AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER VLYS. THE COOL MARINE AIR WILL HAVE A
DRAMATIC EFFECT ON THE MAX TEMPS WHICH WILL DROP BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ACROSS ALL CSTS/VLYS AND MOST OF THE MTNS. THE ANTELOPE
VLY AND CUYAMA VLYS WILL ONLY SEE VERY LIMITED COOLING SINCE THEY
ARE SO REMOVED FROM THE OCEAN. A 9 MB ONSHORE PUSH TO THE EAST
WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
INTERIOR AREAS.
THE ONSHORE PUSH TO THE NORTH WILL BE EVEN STRONGER ON SATURDAY
WHILE THE PUSH TO THE EAST REMAINS STRONG. THERE WILL BE MORE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS IN THE VLYS AND SOME WEST FACING BEACHES MAY
SEE ONLY LIMITED CLEARING. ANOTHER 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF COOLING WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL
END UP IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE CSTS AND 80S AND LOWER
90S IN THE VLYS.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
10/309 AM.
A VERY STATIC PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE XTND PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND 590 DAM HGTS. VERY STRONG (9-10 MB) ONSHORE FLOW TO
THE EAST WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. EVERY DAY WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG (ISOLATED DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE). THERE WILL BE GOOD
CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS, BUT SOME BEACHES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
GUSTY LIKELY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SOME OF THE MTNS AND THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VLY AND FOOTHILLS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE ANTELOPE VLY WITH
THE DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE
CSTS AND 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VLYS.
THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS AND INTERIOR ALONG WITH FAIRLY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BRING AN UPTICK
IN FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
THE MONSOON THREAT LOOKS PRETTY NON EXISTENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOME MDLS HINT AT AN INCREASE IN MOIST EASTERLY FLOW STARTING NEXT
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
AVIATION
10/1805Z.
AT 1730Z, THERE WAS A 700 FOOT MARINE LAYER AT KLAX. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3900 FEET WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 27 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF FOR KPMD, KWJF, KBUR, AND KVNY. LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR KVNY, WHERE THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF A W
WIND 8-12 KTS SURFACING FROM 22Z TO 04Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF CIGS AT KSMX TONIGHT AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN KSBP (+/- 2 HOURS TIMING). MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
VSBYS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LESS THAN 1/2SM AT KSBP (20%) AND
KSMX (30%).
LOW CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE FOR BRIEF
CIGS 004-010 AT KLAX AND KSMO THROUGH 21Z, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MINIMUM CIG HEIGHT AND THERE IS A 15% CHANCE VFR CONDS PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AFTER THAT. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS
AFTER 08Z AT KCMA (30%) AND KSBA (20%). FOR KOXR THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE FOR NO CIGS. IF CIGS ARRIVE, TIMING MAY BE OFF +/- 3
HOURS AND MINIMUM FLIGHT CAT MAY BE OFF BY ONE CAT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPED OFF
THE WEST COAST OF THE LA BASIN. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE FOR BRIEF
CIGS 004-010 THROUGH 21Z, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN MINIMUM CIG
HEIGHT. VSBYS MAY BE AS LOW AS 1SM IF CLOUDS MAKE IT TO KLAX. FOR
TONIGHT, ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS AND MINIMUM
CIG HEIGHT MAY BE OFF +/- 400 FEET. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE FOR VFR
CONDS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ANY EAST WIND
COMPONENT REMAINING UNDER 8 KTS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.
MARINE
10/819 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM POINT CONCEPTION SOUTH TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND.
SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT
SAL AND THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCAL GUSTS TO 21 KTS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING OFF THE COAST OF LOS
ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTIES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SAN PEDRO
CHANNEL AND NEAR POINT DUME DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME. STEEP
AND CHOPPY SEAS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT.
PATCHY DENSE FOG FOCUSED ACROSS THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL
COAST AND WEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLAND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS MORNING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
88-342>345-369>372-374-375-379-380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...HALL/RORKE
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...MUNROE/LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...HALL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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