086
FXUS66 KLOX 270320
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
820 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
26/136 PM.
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST
COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)
26/816 PM.
OVERALL A VERY QUIET PATTERN AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL KEEP THE DESERT SOUTHWEST RIDGE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE EAST TO PREVENT THE HOTTER AIR MASS FROM THAT RIDGE FROM
PUSHING TOO FAR INTO CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY INLAND.
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP TO MAINTAIN A STEADY DOSE OF DAILY
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AT LEAST FOR COAST AND SOME VALLEYS, THOUGH
THE INLAND EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AS SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT LOWERS THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH. CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS ALREADY SURGING INTO THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS EVENING, AS WELL AS PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS THE LA COUNTY
COAST. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 2000
FEET SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT (AS OPPOSED TO THE 3000
FOOT DEPTH LAST NIGHT). AND WITH THIS WILL COME A SLOW WARMING
TREND STARTING SUNDAY THAT WILL INCREASE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
BY AROUND 3 DEGREES PER DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. BUT EVEN WITH
THAT, HIGHS BY TUESDAY WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
COASTAL VALLEYS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND DESERTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S. OTHERWISE, JUST LOOKING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH LOCAL GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOOTHILLS.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
26/212 PM.
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING THE WARMING
TREND LEVELING OFF AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE
CHANGE OR EVEN SLIGHT COOLING CLOSER TO THE COAST. HOWEVER, THE
LATEST GFS STRAYS FROM THIS AND INDICATES ADDITIONAL WARMING FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME WEAKENING OF
GRADIENTS TO THE EAST AND NORTH AND 950MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
40C ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND 31-33C ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEYS. WHILE THIS IS CERTAINLY A CLIMATOLOGICALLY VALID
SOLUTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SINCE A MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLES
ARE FAVORING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THE FORECAST STEERS TOWARDS
NORMAL AS WELL. AND AT THIS TIME THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF MONSOON
FLOW RETURNING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
26/2339Z.
AT 2330Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2000 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2500 FEET WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 19 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KWJF AND KPMD.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING SITES, CEILING CHANGE TIMING MAY
BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS WITH THE GREATEST ROOM FOR ERROR THIS
EVENING. CEILING HEIGHTS MAY BE AROUND 300 FT LOWER TONIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF NO CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KPRB, KSBA, KCMA, KBUR, AND KVNY.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES (CIGS MAY ARRIVE TONIGHT AS EARLY AS 05Z
AND AS LATE AS 09Z SUN) AND CIG HEIGHTS MAY BE OFF BY +/-300 FT,
BUT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BETWEEN OVC010-OVC020 FROM 07Z-17Z. NO
SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...CIGS MAY ARRIVE TONIGHT AS EARLY AS 09Z AND AS LATE AS 13Z
SUN) AND CIG HEIGHTS MAY BE OFF BY +/-300 FT, BUT ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN BETWEEN OVC010-OVC020. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF NO CIGS
REDEVELOPING TONIGHT
MARINE
26/745 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN UNSEASONABLY SMALL (BUT CHOPPY) SEAS INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LOW-END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND TONIGHT,
BECOMING MORE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS AND EXPANDING
NORTHWARD. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL
REACH SCA DURING THE EVENINGS THOUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, WITH A
MODERATE CHANCE FOR WINDS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A A 30% CHANCE OF LOW- END GALES
FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES FROM SHORE, AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
BUILD TO 5-8 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 650-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/GOMBERG
AVIATION...GOMBERG/SCHOENFELD
MARINE...KITTELL/SCHOENFELD/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...MW/CS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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