724
FXUS66 KLOX 270544
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1044 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2025
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
SYNOPSIS
26/818 PM.
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST
COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)
26/816 PM.
OVERALL A VERY QUIET PATTERN AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL KEEP THE DESERT SOUTHWEST RIDGE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE EAST TO PREVENT THE HOTTER AIR MASS FROM THAT RIDGE FROM
PUSHING TOO FAR INTO CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY INLAND.
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP TO MAINTAIN A STEADY DOSE OF DAILY
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AT LEAST FOR COAST AND SOME VALLEYS, THOUGH
THE INLAND EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AS SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT LOWERS THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH. CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS ALREADY SURGING INTO THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS EVENING, AS WELL AS PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS THE LA COUNTY
COAST. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 2000
FEET SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT (AS OPPOSED TO THE 3000
FOOT DEPTH LAST NIGHT). AND WITH THIS WILL COME A SLOW WARMING
TREND STARTING SUNDAY THAT WILL INCREASE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
BY AROUND 3 DEGREES PER DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. BUT EVEN WITH
THAT, HIGHS BY TUESDAY WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
COASTAL VALLEYS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND DESERTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S. OTHERWISE, JUST LOOKING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH LOCAL GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOOTHILLS.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
26/212 PM.
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING THE WARMING
TREND LEVELING OFF AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE
CHANGE OR EVEN SLIGHT COOLING CLOSER TO THE COAST. HOWEVER, THE
LATEST GFS STRAYS FROM THIS AND INDICATES ADDITIONAL WARMING FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME WEAKENING OF
GRADIENTS TO THE EAST AND NORTH AND 950MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
40C ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND 31-33C ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEYS. WHILE THIS IS CERTAINLY A CLIMATOLOGICALLY VALID
SOLUTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SINCE A MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLES
ARE FAVORING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THE FORECAST STEERS TOWARDS
NORMAL AS WELL. AND AT THIS TIME THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF MONSOON
FLOW RETURNING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
27/0543Z.
AT 0454Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 1200 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 3000 FEET WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE
OF 19 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KWJF AND KPMD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF FOR KSBA, WHERE THERE IS A 40% CHANCE FOR
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL. IF CIGS ARRIVE, MINIMUM CIG HEIGHT MAY BE
OFF +/- 500 FEET AND TIMING MAY BE OFF BY 2 HOURS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS
ARRIVING AT ALL SITES, EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR KPRB, KCMA,
AND KBUR, KVNY. FOR THE PREVIOUS SITES, THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE
VFR CONDS PREVAIL. TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT CHANGE MAY BE OFF BY +/-
2 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MINIMUM CIG HEIGHT (+/- 300
FEET).
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS,
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES (CIGS MAY
ARRIVE TONIGHT AS EARLY AS 07Z AND AS LATE AS 10Z SUN) AND CIG
HEIGHTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 300 FT, BUT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
BETWEEN OVC010-OVC020 FROM 07Z-17Z. TIMING OF DISSIPATION MAY BE
OFF BY +/- 90 MINUTES). NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT
EXPECTED.
KBUR...CIGS MAY ARRIVE TONIGHT AS EARLY AS 09Z AND AS LATE AS 13Z
SUN) AND CIG HEIGHTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 300 FT, BUT ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN BETWEEN OVC010-OVC020. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF NO CIGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
MARINE
26/745 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN UNSEASONABLY SMALL (BUT CHOPPY) SEAS INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LOW-END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND TONIGHT,
BECOMING MORE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS AND EXPANDING
NORTHWARD. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL
REACH SCA DURING THE EVENINGS THOUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, WITH A
MODERATE CHANCE FOR WINDS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A A 30% CHANCE OF LOW- END GALES
FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES FROM SHORE, AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
BUILD TO 5-8 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 650-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/GOMBERG
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...KITTELL/SCHOENFELD/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...MW/CS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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