310
FXUS66 KLOX 280242
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
742 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
27/732 PM.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP A
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL TAKE
SHAPE THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES MEANDERS WEST. CLOSER TO THE COAST,
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)
27/156 PM.
SLOWLY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL CAUSE THE MARINE LAYER TO LOWER, RESULTING IN ABOUT 3 DEGREES
OF WARMING EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THIS
WARMING TREND, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH WARMER COASTAL VALLEYS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO HIGH
90S AND DESERTS AROUND 100. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO AT LEAST SOME OF THE VALLEYS, THOUGH LESS SO EACH DAY
WITH CLEARING TIMES TRENDING EARLIER IN THE MORNING.
CLOSER TO THE COAST, TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR
INCREASE JUST SLIGHTLY AS THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING.
ASIDE FROM THE USUAL AFTERNOON BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND SOME SUNDOWNERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY WEDNESDAY EVENING, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAINS RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
27/210 PM.
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. MOST OF THE
ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES,
HOWEVER, SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, PARTICULARLY THE
GFS, INDICATE ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING. THE
DISAGREEMENTS BECOME EVEN GREATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
SO CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD IS LOWER THAN USUAL. ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN VERY STEADY SO THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. ALSO OF NOTE OVER NEXT WEEKEND IS THE
LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING
WEST OVER THE PACIFIC WELL SOUTH OF 30N. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ANY MONSOON CONDITIONS
SO IT IS VERY LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY, BUT WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASING
SOUTH SWELLS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
28/0232Z.
AT 22Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1300 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS AT 3400 FEET WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 19 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KWJF AND KPMD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF FOR KSBA, KPRB, KBUR, AND KVNY WHERE THERE
IS A 40% CHANCE OF CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT
CHANGE MAY BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS FOR SITES NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION, AND BY +/- 3 HOURS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. LIFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST SITES THAT WILL SEE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF CIGS, WHICH MAY BE OFF BY +/-3 HOURS. NO
SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE CIGS DO
NOT OCCUR.
MARINE
27/129 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN UNSEASONABLY SMALL (BUT CHOPPY) SEAS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING, THEN SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO 6-8 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS ARE LIKELY FROM POINT SAL TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EXPANDING NORTHWARD
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL REACH SCA DURING
THE EVENINGS THOUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
OF WINDS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH ACROSS THE CHANNEL TO WARRANT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES TODAY AND MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A HIGH RISK OF SCA
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE IS A A 30% CHANCE OF LOW- END GALES
FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES FROM SHORE, WITH BEST CHANCES FROM
AROUND POINT CONCEPTION SOUTH TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...PHILLIPS
MARINE...LEWIS/SCHOENFELD
SYNOPSIS...MW/HALL/CS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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